{"id":21603,"date":"2016-09-10T14:27:06","date_gmt":"2016-09-10T19:27:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21603"},"modified":"2016-09-10T14:27:06","modified_gmt":"2016-09-10T19:27:06","slug":"peak-oil-by-any-other-name-is-still-peak-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21603","title":{"rendered":"Peak oil by any other name is still peak oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

Peak oil by any other name is still peak oil<\/a><\/h3>\n
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One of the most compelling charts I have ever seen is the \u201cGrowing Gap\u201d chart that used to appear\u00a0in every ASPO Newsletter.\u00a0This is the one from\u00a0the last ASPO Newsletter<\/a>, written by Colin Campbell and published in April 2009.<\/span><\/div>\n
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Since then, more than seven<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>years have passed, and peak oil has disappeared from the mainstream press headlines–almost. On August 29, Bloomberg published\u00a0a story<\/a>\u00a0alerting to the fact that conventional oil discovery has reached a 70-year low. It published a very interesting chart, using data provided by Wood Mackenzie, the oil consulting firm, to show that fact.\u00a0<\/span>Unlike the ASPO chart, Bloomberg’s chart only goes back to 1947, the year before Ghawar was discovered.<\/span><\/div>\n
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I thought I would reproduce the \u201cGrowing Gap\u201d chart using Wood Mackenzie’s data.<\/div>\n
Neither Wood Mackenzie nor Bloomberg make public<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>the data behind the chart, but I used a digitization<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>program,\u00a0WebPlotDigitizer<\/a>, to extract data from the chart. The results are not perfect, of course, but give a good enough estimate. One must keep in mind that discovery data are not precise and may have a significant margin of error.<\/span><\/div>\n
In order to obtain conventional oil production, I subtracted\u00a0US tight oil production<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Canadian tar sands production<\/a>from the EIA’s global crude plus condensate number. I know I must also subtract the extra-heavy production from the Orinoco Belt, but it is hard to find data for it. In any case, this is a very good estimate. According to data gathered by<\/span>Jean Laherr\u00e8re, the Orinoco extra-heavy production is only around 1 Mb\/d today.<\/span><\/div>\n
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The following chart shows the digitized Wood Mackenzie conventional discovery data and the\u00a0production data described above.\u00a0<\/span>According to the data, since 1980, when the gap between production and discovery began to appear, humanity has extracted about 47 percent more conventional oil than it has discovered.<\/div>\n
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Peak oil by any other name is still peak oil One of the most compelling charts I have ever seen is the \u201cGrowing Gap\u201d chart that used to appear\u00a0in every ASPO Newsletter.\u00a0This is the one from\u00a0the last ASPO Newsletter, written by Colin Campbell and published in April 2009. Since then, more than seven\u00a0years have passed, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10777,2166,14240,617,2692],"class_list":["post-21603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-cassandras-legacy","tag-colin-campbell","tag-diego-mantilla","tag-peak-oil","tag-ugo-bardi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21603"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21603\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21604,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21603\/revisions\/21604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}