{"id":21309,"date":"2016-06-26T18:44:24","date_gmt":"2016-06-26T23:44:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21309"},"modified":"2016-06-26T18:44:24","modified_gmt":"2016-06-26T23:44:24","slug":"peak-oil-in-asia-and-oil-import-trends-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21309","title":{"rendered":"Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2)<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

We pick up the question from part 1:<\/p>\n

\"Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2015_fill_in-2035\"<\/p>\n

Fig 11: Homework for governments<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s have a look where all the net imports into Asia have come from in the past:<\/p>\n

\"Asia_net_imports_2001-2015\"<\/p>\n

Fig 12: Asia net imports \u2013 overview<\/p>\n

BP\u2019s data on inter area oil movements start in 2001. Oil imports from the Middle East increased from 11.5 mb\/d in 2001 to 15.5 mb\/d in 2015 or 4 mb\/d. This is an amazing \u201cperformance \u201c because Middle East exports to all countries\u00a0 increased only by 0.8 mb\/d (crude) and 0.7 mb\/d (products) in 15 years!<\/p>\n

\"World_crude_oil_exports_2001-2015\"<\/p>\n

Fig 13: World\u2019s crude oil exports<\/p>\n

Global crude oil exports in 2015 were not higher than in 2007. Canadian exports (dirty tar sands mainly to the US) increased by 1.9 mb\/d since 2001.<\/p>\n

Middle East exports to Asia<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"Middle_East_oil_exports_2001-2015_Asia-share\"<\/p>\n

Fig 14: Middle East oil exports share to Asia<\/p>\n

Asia\u2019s share of Middle East exports has increased from 60% in 2001 to 75% in 2015. Let\u2019s have a look to which countries\/regions these Middle East exports go:<\/p>\n

\"Middle_East_oil_exports_by_destination_2001-2015\"<\/p>\n

Fig 15 Middle East oil exports by destination<\/p>\n

In the above graph we stack Asian countries on top of other countries which shows that Asia took away Middle East exports from the US and Europe which are in decline.<\/p>\n

So how would that continue into the future? Let\u2019s do a very simplified trend analysis without regard to oil prices, the type of oil, oil reserves and geo-political events and assuming no declining oil production in Asia.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2) We pick up the question from part 1: Fig 11: Homework for governments Let\u2019s have a look where all the net imports into Asia have come from in the past: Fig 12: Asia net imports \u2013 overview BP\u2019s data on inter area oil movements start […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[34,6292,1039,595,617],"class_list":["post-21309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-asia","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-oil-consumption","tag-oil-production","tag-peak-oil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21309"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21310,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21309\/revisions\/21310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}