{"id":21263,"date":"2016-06-25T11:40:09","date_gmt":"2016-06-25T16:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21263"},"modified":"2016-06-25T11:40:09","modified_gmt":"2016-06-25T16:40:09","slug":"texas-oil-and-natural-gas-june-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21263","title":{"rendered":"Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/texas-oil-and-natural-gas-june-2016\/\">Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb\/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb\/d from the revised March 2016 estimate to 3511 kb\/d. The EIA estimate for March 2016 is 3276 kb\/d, and Dean\u2019s revised estimate is 3484 kb\/d, 208 kb\/d more than the EIA estimate.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160624.png\" alt=\"TXchart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-12910\"><\/span>As several commenters in the past have questioned Dean\u2019s estimates (which I am convinced are robust, especially through March 2016), I asked Dean the following questions:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt one point you thought there may have been a structural change in the data. Is that no longer the case? \u2026. Are you seeing any issues that I \u2026 would have missed?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He answered:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just tested the correcting factors for stationarity with panel unit root tests and the null of a unit root is rejected for all tests considered.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I did some research on stationarity and unit root tests and then asked:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo the mean and variance of the correcting factors do not change with time or follow any trend?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said that was correct.<\/p>\n<p>Essentially the statistics suggest that the mean and variance of the correction factors have remained stable over the past 24 months and over time they are likely to approach their \u201ctrue\u201d value. The Chart below shows how the TX C+C correction factors have changed from Sept 2014 to April 2016.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160624b.png\" alt=\"TXchart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows how the estimates of TX C+C have changed from May 2015 to April 2016. The dashed lines suggest the estimates with the minimum correction factors (Nov 2015) and the maximum correction factors (March 2016).<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Texas Oil and Natural Gas- June 2016 Dean has shared his estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output. Texas (TX) C+C output was revised lower by -10, -17, -22, -18, and -52 kb\/d for Nov 2015 through March 2016 respectively. Output in April 2016 increased by 27 kb\/d from the revised March 2016 estimate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11379,554,595,6245,2063,14110],"class_list":["post-21263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-dennis-coyne","tag-natural-gas","tag-oil-production","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-texas","tag-texas-oil-production"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21263"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21263\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21264,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21263\/revisions\/21264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}