{"id":21172,"date":"2016-06-23T13:54:55","date_gmt":"2016-06-23T18:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21172"},"modified":"2016-06-23T13:54:55","modified_gmt":"2016-06-23T18:54:55","slug":"world-energy-2016-2050-annual-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21172","title":{"rendered":"World Energy 2016-2050: Annual Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-energy-2016-2050-annual-report\/\">World Energy 2016-2050: Annual Report<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>The purpose of this annual report is to provide an analytical framework evaluating the\u00a0development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy. The report projects\u00a0the world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and other energies from 2016 to 2050. It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic\u00a0product, and energy efficiency from 2016 to 2050 as well as carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning from 2016 to 2100.<\/p>\n<p>The basic analytical tool is Hubbert Linearization, first proposed by American geologist\u00a0M. King Hubbert (Hubbert 1982). Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a\u00a0useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the\u00a0existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics. Other statistical methods and some\u00a0official projections will also be used where they are relevant.<\/p>\n<p>Past experience with Hubbert Linearization suggests that Hubbert Linearization exercise\u00a0tends to underestimate the ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas resources. To mitigate this\u00a0\u201cpessimistic\u201d bias, I use the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)\u2019s official projection to\u00a0project US oil and natural gas production from 2016 to 2040, which may prove to be too\u00a0optimistic.<\/p>\n<p>About two years ago, I posted \u201cWorld Energy 2014-2050\u201d at Peak Oil Barrel (Political\u00a0Economist 2014). The posts can be found here:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-energy-2014-2050-part-1-2\/\">World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-energy-2014-2050-part-2\/\">World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 2)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-energy-2014-2050-part-3\/\">World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 3)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 2014 report drew the following conclusion:<\/p>\n<p>It finds that world production of oil, natural gas, and coal may peak between 2016 and 2031. As the supply of fossil\u00a0fuels declines and the renewable energies do not grow sufficiently rapidly, the world energy consumption is\u00a0projected to peak in 2035 and the world economy is projected to enter into a prolonged depression after 2040.\u00a0World carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning are projected to peak in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World Energy 2016-2050: Annual Report The purpose of this annual report is to provide an analytical framework evaluating the\u00a0development of world energy supply and its impact on the global economy. The report projects\u00a0the world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and other energies from 2016 to 2050. It also projects the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[251,267,270,14072,14071,6245,6247,14070],"class_list":["post-21172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-eia","tag-energy-information-administration","tag-energy-supply","tag-hubbert-linearization","tag-mk-hubert","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-recoverable-oil","tag-world-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21172"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21172\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21173,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21172\/revisions\/21173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}