{"id":20691,"date":"2016-05-18T18:58:59","date_gmt":"2016-05-18T23:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=20691"},"modified":"2016-05-18T18:59:52","modified_gmt":"2016-05-18T23:59:52","slug":"chinas-rolling-boom-bust-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=20691","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Rolling Boom-Bust Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"
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China\u2019s Rolling Boom-Bust Cycle\u00a0<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Sweet Authoritative Nothings<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n

There is a mysterious figure making regular appearances in China\u2019s government mouthpiece \u201cPeople\u2019s Daily\u201d, which simply goes by the name \u201cauthoritative person\u201d (AP). This unnamed entity always tends to show up with bad news for assorted speculators, by suggesting that various scenarios associated with monetary and\/ or fiscal stimulus are actually\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0in China\u2019s immediate future (the details of AP\u2019s latest pronouncements can be found\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\"people'sThe People\u2019s Daily. \u201cAuthoritative Person\u201d may be hiding somewhere in the picture to the left.<\/p>\n

Some observers seem to believe that this represents a \u201crenewed shift in policy\u201d \u2013\u00a0Bloomberg e.g. quotes<\/a>\u00a0an economist with Mizuho Securities as follows:<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is very significant and may signal a shift in China\u2019s policies,\u201d said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. \u201cEach time they publish this, it is normally a warning.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Others are more careful \u2013 after all, this seems to be a case of \u201cwe\u2019re saying one thing and doing another\u201d, given a credit expansion of 4.6 trillion yuan in just the first quarter, which has sent narrow money supply growth soaring to more than 22% annualized.<\/p>\n

The more measured argument is that it could be a sign that the debate about future economic policy is ongoing, resp. has been revived. No-one really knows \u2013 it is basically the Chinese version of Kremlinology.<\/p>\n

\"1-China<\/a>At the end of March, China\u2019s narrow money supply measure M1 was growing at more than 22% y\/y \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n

Although the extension of new yuan loans has slowed significantly in April from January\u2019s heady pace (555 bn. vs. 2.5 trn.), there has still been enough pumping in the system to push M1 up again in March-April from a brief dip in February \u2013 in other words, if there is indeed a change in policy, it is not really visible yet.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s Rolling Boom-Bust Cycle\u00a0 Sweet Authoritative Nothings There is a mysterious figure making regular appearances in China\u2019s government mouthpiece \u201cPeople\u2019s Daily\u201d, which simply goes by the name \u201cauthoritative person\u201d (AP). This unnamed entity always tends to show up with bad news for assorted speculators, by suggesting that various scenarios associated with monetary and\/ or fiscal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,5451,130,962,535,954,6170,8140,1031],"class_list":["post-20691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-boom-bust-cycle","tag-china","tag-fiscal-stimulus","tag-monetary-stimulus","tag-money-supply","tag-pater-tenebrarum","tag-peoples-daily","tag-yuan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20691"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20693,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20691\/revisions\/20693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}