{"id":20272,"date":"2016-04-25T19:07:49","date_gmt":"2016-04-26T00:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=20272"},"modified":"2016-04-25T19:07:49","modified_gmt":"2016-04-26T00:07:49","slug":"simultaneous-elderly-overpopulation-youth-depopulation-the-impact-on-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=20272","title":{"rendered":"Simultaneous Elderly Overpopulation, Youth Depopulation & The Impact on Economic Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Simultaneous Elderly Overpopulation, Youth Depopulation & The Impact on Economic Growth<\/a><\/h3>\n
Strangely, the world is suffering from two seemingly opposite trends…overpopulation and depopulation in concert.\u00a0 The overpopulation is due to the increased longevity of elderly lifespans vs. depopulation of young populations due to collapsing birthrates.\u00a0 The depopulation is among\u00a0most under 25yr old populations (except Africa) and among many under 45yr old populations.<\/div>\n
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\nSo,\u00a0the old are living decades longer than a generation ago\u00a0but their adult children are having far fewer children.\u00a0 The economics of this is a complete game changer and is unlike any time previously in the history of mankind.\u00a0 None of the models ever accounted for a shrinking young population absent income, savings, or job opportunity vs. massive growth in the old with a vast majority reliant on government programs in their generally underfunded retirements (apart from a minority of retirees who are wildly “overfunded”).\u00a0 There are literally hundreds of reasons for the longer lifespans and lower birthrates…but that’s for another day.\u00a0 This is simply a look at what is and what is likely to be absent a goal-seeked happy ending.<\/p>\n

In\u00a0a short yet economically valid manner, every person is a unit of consumption.\u00a0 The greater the number of people and the greater the purchasing power, the greater the growth in consumption.\u00a0 So, if one wanted to\u00a0gauge\u00a0economic growth, (growth in consumption driving economic growth), multiply the\u00a0annual change in population by purchasing power (wages, savings) per capita.\u00a0 Regarding wage growth, I hold wages flat as from a consumption standpoint, wage growth is basically offset by inflation.\u00a0 Of course, there is another lever beyond this which central banks are feverishly torqueing; substituting\u00a0the lower\u00a0interest rates of ZIRP and NIRP\u00a0to boost consumption from a flagging base of\u00a0population growth.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Simultaneous Elderly Overpopulation, Youth Depopulation & The Impact on Economic Growth Strangely, the world is suffering from two seemingly opposite trends…overpopulation and depopulation in concert.\u00a0 The overpopulation is due to the increased longevity of elderly lifespans vs. depopulation of young populations due to collapsing birthrates.\u00a0 The depopulation is among\u00a0most under 25yr old populations (except Africa) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[162,5561,240,13650,426,431,534,1389,606,5631,1809,1939],"class_list":["post-20272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-consumption","tag-depopulation","tag-economic-growth","tag-hambones-stuff","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nirp","tag-overpopulation","tag-retirement","tag-wage-growth","tag-zirp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20272"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20272\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20273,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20272\/revisions\/20273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}