{"id":19629,"date":"2016-04-07T11:48:28","date_gmt":"2016-04-07T16:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19629"},"modified":"2016-04-07T11:48:28","modified_gmt":"2016-04-07T16:48:28","slug":"world-crude-plus-condensate-decline-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19629","title":{"rendered":"World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-cc-decline\/\" target=\"_blank\">World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">There is concern that World C+C may decline steeply after the peak, I believe those concerns are over blown. There is always the possibility that there could be a severe recession due to high debt levels, high oil prices or potentially due to both problems in combination. War and environmental damage due to overpopulation are also potential problems which may lead to a crisis.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>If none of these problems arises in the near term (say for the next ten years), and demand for oil is high enough to keep annual average oil prices above $75\/b from 2018 to 2025, then the average annual decline rate of oil (C+C) output will remain under 2%.<\/p>\n<p>For simplicity in the analysis that follows, I assume the peak in C+C output is 2015 and that output will decline at a relatively steady rate from 2015 to 2025. This in unlikely to be the case in practice and\u00a0the actual path of future world output is unknown,\u00a0the intention is to determine\u00a0a likely trend line\u00a0for World\u00a0C+C output. \u00a0Using quarterly C+C output data from the EIA, I constructed the charts that follow.<\/p>\n<p>Data is from the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/cfapps\/ipdbproject\/iedindex3.cfm?tid=50&amp;pid=57&amp;aid=1&amp;cid=&amp;syid=2002&amp;eyid=2015&amp;freq=Q&amp;unit=TBPD\" target=\"_blank\">International Energy Statistics\u00a0<\/a>page at the EIA website.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cBig 14\u201d oil producers from 2002 to 2015 are (in order from largest to smallest): Russia, Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Iran, Mexico, Canada, UAE, Venezuela, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Norway, and Brazil. The Rest of the World (ROW) is all other oil producers besides the \u201cBig 14\u201d.<br \/>\nAll charts below (except the natural log charts) are in kb\/d.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160406a.png\" alt=\"declinepost\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-12217\"><\/span>The Big 14 increased C+C output by about 8 Mb\/d from 2010 to 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160406b.png\" alt=\"declinepost\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the ROW C+C output decreased by about 3 Mb\/d from 2010 to 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160406c.png\" alt=\"declinepost\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>To consider decline rates we look at the linear trend of the natural log of output. For the ROW the average annual decline rate was 2.69% from 2010 to 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160406d.png\" alt=\"declinepost\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The C+C output of the Big 14 increased at an average annual rate of 2.71% from 2010 to 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160406e.png\" alt=\"declinepost\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate There is concern that World C+C may decline steeply after the peak, I believe those concerns are over blown. There is always the possibility that there could be a severe recession due to high debt levels, high oil prices or potentially due to both problems in combination. War and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11379,416,433,592,595,617,6245,13333],"class_list":["post-19629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-dennis-coyne","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-production","tag-peak-oil","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-world-crude-oil-production"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19629"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19629\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19630,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19629\/revisions\/19630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}