{"id":19389,"date":"2016-04-01T11:11:04","date_gmt":"2016-04-01T16:11:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19389"},"modified":"2016-04-01T11:11:04","modified_gmt":"2016-04-01T16:11:04","slug":"opecs-doha-dilemma-3mbd-us-lock-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19389","title":{"rendered":"OPEC’s Doha Dilemma: 3MB\/D US Lock in?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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EUGEN B\u00d6HM VON BAWERK: OPEC\u2019S DOHA DILEMMA: 3MB\/D US LOCK IN?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
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Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th\u00a0April after initial agreement to hold \u2018upstream horses\u2019 in February 2016. While it\u2019s no doubt great fun getting back into the OPEC \u2018masters of the oil universe\u2019 routine, second time round, the stakes are rapidly rising in Doha given another supposed \u2018freeze\u2019 announcement would actually be read as outright OPEC \/ Russia failure without clear signals the market will see actual cuts. That opens a very complex can of worms for what\u2019s at stake here. We\u2019ll do OPEC politics first, followed by market \u2018realities\u2019 second. On both counts, timing is crucial. And bluntly put, OPEC couldn\u2019t have picked a worse window for another ad hoc meeting.<\/p>\n

Leading up to Doha, market expectations will inevitably grow for some kind of cut that\u2019s likely to put a few dollars on the barrel. Ironic given this remains a classic case of OPEC \/ non-OPEC heavyweights \u2018talking peace, but preparing for war\u2019 in terms of longer term volumes strategies. Obviously it\u2019s all bluff for now, but the fact Kuwait claims it can do 3.2mb\/d, Iraq has inched up to 4.8mb\/d, Venezuela is holding firm at \u20182.6mb\/d\u2019, while Russia is full steam ahead at 10.9mb\/d serves as a reasonable proxy for where everyone is likely to go in a low price environment; volumes plays. Iran has certainly made clear it\u2019s insisting on pre-sanction production levels before it\u2019s even willing to sit at the OPEC table. Nobody was ever realistically going to hold that against Iran given market problems everyone else has got themselves into this far down the line. But in the interim, the key space to watch on 17th\u00a0April is whether the market\u2019s been asking all the wrong questions over cuts to date.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUGEN B\u00d6HM VON BAWERK: OPEC\u2019S DOHA DILEMMA: 3MB\/D US LOCK IN? Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th\u00a0April after initial agreement to hold \u2018upstream horses\u2019 in February 2016. While it\u2019s no doubt great fun getting back into the OPEC \u2018masters of the oil universe\u2019 routine, second time round, the stakes are rapidly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[7380,12845,595,600,694],"class_list":["post-19389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-cobden-centre","tag-eugen-bohm-von-bawerk","tag-oil-production","tag-opec","tag-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19389"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19390,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19389\/revisions\/19390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}