{"id":1928,"date":"2014-11-22T08:44:27","date_gmt":"2014-11-22T13:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=1928"},"modified":"2014-11-22T08:44:27","modified_gmt":"2014-11-22T13:44:27","slug":"the-us-shale-breakeven-price-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=1928","title":{"rendered":"The US Shale Breakeven Price Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/The-US-Shale-Breakeven-Price-Debate.html\">The US Shale Breakeven Price Debate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 1em 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">My favorite quote by H.L. Mencken is \u2018<em style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: italic; font-size: 14px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">a cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin<\/em>\u2018. A bit morose, I know, but this appeals to the contrarian in me. My second favorite is \u00fcberly-applicable to US shale oil break-evens: \u2018<em style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: italic; font-size: 14px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong<\/em>\u2018. For there is no lack of estimates flying around as to the price level at which US shale oil production could be curtailed. The problem is, they all appear to be different.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 1em 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">The debate was ignited by OPEC, after comments from Secretary General El-Badri. The\u00a0<a style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #24606c; text-decoration: underline; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2014-10-29\/opec-says-shale-drillers-first-affected-by-oil-price-drop.html\">Libyan said late last month<\/a>\u00a0that tight oil (aka US shale) would be the first to be impacted by the drop in oil prices, stating: \u201cIf prices stay at $85, we will see a lot of investment, a lot of projects, a lot of oil going out of the market.\u201d He said half of shale oil would be out of the market at a price of $85.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 1em 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">This view is at the high end of the range when it comes to estimates, with the IEA seemingly taking the other side of this bet. Executive Director, Maria van der Hoeven, said last month that 98% of U.S. shale plays have a break-even price of below $80.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 1em; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 1em 0px; border: 0px initial initial;\">&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US Shale Breakeven Price Debate. My favorite quote by H.L. Mencken is \u2018a cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin\u2018. A bit morose, I know, but this appeals to the contrarian in me. My second favorite is \u00fcberly-applicable to US shale oil break-evens: \u2018For every complex problem [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[592,595,600,723,1358],"class_list":["post-1928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-production","tag-opec","tag-shale-oil","tag-us-shale"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1928"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1928\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1929,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1928\/revisions\/1929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}