{"id":19197,"date":"2016-03-26T18:43:36","date_gmt":"2016-03-26T23:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19197"},"modified":"2016-03-26T18:44:07","modified_gmt":"2016-03-26T23:44:07","slug":"guessing-the-future-without-says-law","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19197","title":{"rendered":"Guessing the future without Say\u2019s law"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Guessing the future without Say\u2019s law\u00a0<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n
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Or some reflections to read over the Easter holidays<\/strong><\/p>\n

With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook.<\/p>\n

Economists lack consensus, with some expecting yet more easing, based on the apparent collapse in cross-border trade last year. The fact that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank see fit to pursue increasingly aggressive monetary reflation is taken as evidence of underlying difficulties faced in these key economies. And lingering doubts about the sustainability of China\u2019s credit bubble point to a high risk of a credit-induced slump in the world\u2019s growth engine.<\/p>\n

Other economists, citing official US data and relying on the Fed\u2019s statements, point out that unemployment levels have more than satisfied the Fed\u2019s target, and that core inflation has picked up to the point where the Fed would be fully justified to increase interest rates over the course of this year, or risk overheating in 2017.<\/p>\n

These two opposite camps conflict in their forecasts, but where they fundamentally differ is in expectations of future economic growth. Far from displaying the highest levels of macroeconomic discipline, their diversity of opinion should alert us that their forecasts may lack sound theoretical foundation. The purpose of reasoned theory is to reduce uncertainty, not promote it. And the explanation for most of the failures behind modern macroeconomic thinking is the substitution of market-based economics by economic planning.<\/p>\n

The fact that today\u2019s macroeconomics dismisses the laws of the markets, commonly referred to by economists as Say\u2019s law, explains all. Subsequent errors confirm. The many errors are a vast subject, but they boil down to that one fateful step, and that is denying the universal truth of Say\u2019s law.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guessing the future without Say\u2019s law\u00a0 Or some reflections to read over the Easter holidays With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook. Economists lack consensus, with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7772,124,233,240,282,285,303,305,7771,452,506,5871],"class_list":["post-19197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-alasdair-macleod","tag-central-banks","tag-ecb","tag-economic-growth","tag-european-central-bank","tag-eurozone","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-goldmoney-com","tag-japan","tag-markets","tag-says-law"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19197"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19197\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19198,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19197\/revisions\/19198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}