{"id":19182,"date":"2016-03-25T16:12:06","date_gmt":"2016-03-25T21:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19182"},"modified":"2016-03-25T16:12:06","modified_gmt":"2016-03-25T21:12:06","slug":"deutsche-banks-dire-warning-on-global-trade-the-currency-war-is-futile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=19182","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank’s Dire Warning On Global Trade: “The Currency War Is Futile”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank’s Dire Warning On Global Trade: “The Currency War Is Futile”<\/a><\/h3>\n
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\u201cIt\u2019s almost like the timing belt on the global growth engine is a bit off or the cylinders are not firing as they should.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s from WTO chief economist Robert Koopman, and it\u2019s a quote we\u2019ve used on a number of occasions. Koopman is referring to the fact that for several years in a row,\u00a0the rate of growth in global trade has lagged GDP growth<\/strong>. That\u2019s a problem for two reasons:\u00a01)<\/strong>\u00a0GDP growth is hardly robust as it is, and\u00a02)<\/strong>\u00a0before the recent downturn, the last time trade growth underperformed the rate of economic expansion was two decades ago.<\/p>\n

As\u00a0WSJ noted<\/a>\u00a0last autumn, trade growth has averaged just 3% per year.\u00a0That\u2019s half of the 1983-2008 average<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s fairly obvious that we reached peak trade in 2007,\u201d Scott Miller, trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank told the Journal.<\/p>\n

Since then, the evidence has continued to pile up that global trade has flatlined. Freight volume in the US\u00a0fell for the first time<\/a>\u00a0in three years in November, while monumental declines for Class 8 truck sales vividly demonstrate the extent to which commerce is simply grinding to a halt across the US economy. As for\u00a0global<\/em>\u00a0trade, well, the Baltic Dry speaks for itself.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt is worse than in 2008<\/strong>. The oil price [is low] and freight rates are lower. The external conditions are much worse,\u201d Maersk CEO Nils Andersen said, just last month. Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter alone.<\/p>\n

In this environment the \u201canswer\u201d has been competitive devaluation – i.e. a currency war.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank’s Dire Warning On Global Trade: “The Currency War Is Futile” \u201cIt\u2019s almost like the timing belt on the global growth engine is a bit off or the cylinders are not firing as they should.\u201d That\u2019s from WTO chief economist Robert Koopman, and it\u2019s a quote we\u2019ve used on a number of occasions. Koopman […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10469,124,1839,12312,8387,9931,4318],"class_list":["post-19182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-baltic-dry","tag-central-banks","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-golden-goose","tag-latam","tag-washington-d-c","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19182"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19182\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19183,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19182\/revisions\/19183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}