{"id":18979,"date":"2016-03-18T10:49:25","date_gmt":"2016-03-18T15:49:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18979"},"modified":"2016-03-18T10:49:46","modified_gmt":"2016-03-18T15:49:46","slug":"us-money-supply-and-debt-early-warning-signs-remain-operative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18979","title":{"rendered":"US Money Supply and Debt \u2013 Early Warning Signs Remain Operative"},"content":{"rendered":"
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US Money Supply and Debt \u2013 Early Warning Signs Remain Operative\u00a0<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
Still Slowing Down<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n

Year-end distortions have begun to slowly come out of the data, and while broad true US money supply growth remains fairly brisk, it has begun to slow again relative to January\u2019s y\/y growth rate, to 7.8% from 8.32%.<\/p>\n

\"Many<\/p>\n

So far it remains in the sideways channel (indicated by the blue lines below) between approx. 7.4% and 8.6%, in which it has meandered since mid 2013. We believe the next break \u201cbelow the shelf\u201d is likely to be a significant event.<\/p>\n

\"1-TMS-2-y-o-y-growth\"<\/a>Broad true US money supply TMS-2, annual growth rate: still in the channel, but slowing again from January\u2019s brief upward spike \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n

Readers may recall that it was primarily the US treasury\u2019s general account at the Fed which was responsible for the recent upward spike in the growth rate of TMS-2, combined with a\u00a0 year-end surge in deposit money. We suspect the latter had to do with offshore dollars being moved to domestic accounts at year-end for various accounting-related reasons. This suspicion has been confirmed by the fact that the move has been largely reversed in the new year.<\/p>\n

As an aside, total bank credit growth (total loans and leases, excl. mortgage debt) stands at 8.24% y\/y as of the end of February, which is still well below the peak growth rates seen in previous boom periods (these were closer to 13%).<\/p>\n

As can be seen below, the amount of money held in the general account has declined further in February as well, but it seems to us that this money has merely moved into other demand deposits, i.e., there has simply been a shift from one categorization to another:<\/p>\n

\"2-US<\/a>Money held in the treasury\u2019s general account at the Fed \u2013 the recent record spike has begun to reverse \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US Money Supply and Debt \u2013 Early Warning Signs Remain Operative\u00a0 Still Slowing Down Year-end distortions have begun to slowly come out of the data, and while broad true US money supply growth remains fairly brisk, it has begun to slow again relative to January\u2019s y\/y growth rate, to 7.8% from 8.32%. So far it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,13010,195,13011,536,954,6170,827,2202],"class_list":["post-18979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-credit-growth","tag-debt","tag-demand-deposits","tag-money","tag-money-supply","tag-pater-tenebrarum","tag-united-states","tag-us-treasury"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18979"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18979\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18980,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18979\/revisions\/18980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}