{"id":18902,"date":"2016-03-16T11:54:26","date_gmt":"2016-03-16T16:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18902"},"modified":"2016-03-16T11:54:26","modified_gmt":"2016-03-16T16:54:26","slug":"here-comes-the-big-flush-recession-pending-fed-put-ending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18902","title":{"rendered":"Here Comes The Big Flush\u2014\u2013Recession Pending, Fed \u2018Put\u2019 Ending"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Here Comes The Big Flush\u2014\u2013Recession Pending, Fed \u2018Put\u2019 Ending<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Talk about sheep being led to the slaughter. The S&P 500 is up 11% from its February 11th intra-day low (1812) because Wall Street still has inventory to unload.\u00a0That much is\u00a0par for the course.<\/p>\n

Yet the signs of an impending macroeconomic and profits\u00a0implosion are now\u00a0so overwhelming that it\u00a0is truly remarkable that\u00a0there are any bids left in the casino at all. This morning\u2019s release of business sales for January,\u00a0for example,\u00a0showed another down month and that the inventory-to-sales ratio for the entire economy is now at\u00a01.40X<\/strong><\/em>\u2014\u2013a ratio last recorded in May 2009.<\/p>\n

As Zero Hedge so aptly put it:<\/p>\n

\u201cLook at this chart!\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Once upon a time, real economists, investors and traders knew that business sales, wages and profits are the heart of the matter. No longer.\u00a0The self-referential\u00a0sentiment surveys, financial conditions indices and bullish spin on Fed\u00a0word clouds which\u00a0animate today\u2019s\u00a0casino muffle\u00a0the fundamentals almost\u00a0entirely.<\/p>\n

Yesterday on Bloomberg TV, for example, my downbeat view was challenged with a chart showing that Goldman\u2019s financial conditions index had perked up during the last 5-weeks. Where, I was asked, is\u00a0the recession?<\/p>\n

How about the quarter century of history shown below? Business sales reported this morning were\u00a0down by 5.1% from their July 2014 cyclical peak<\/strong>. Self-evidently, declines of that magnitude have occurred only twice since 1992, and both of them bear the shaded imprint of recession.<\/p>\n

How about the quarter century of history shown below? Business sales reported this morning were\u00a0down by 5.1% from their July 2014 cyclical peak<\/strong>. Self-evidently, declines of that magnitude have occurred only twice since 1992, and both of them bear the shaded imprint of recession.<\/p>\n

The chart also bears something else. Namely, real economic meat and potatoes. Even at\u00a0their slumping January level, business sales came in at a $15.5 annual\u00a0trillion rate. That\u2019s something; it measures the entire churn of manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales from coast-to-coast<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here Comes The Big Flush\u2014\u2013Recession Pending, Fed \u2018Put\u2019 Ending Talk about sheep being led to the slaughter. The S&P 500 is up 11% from its February 11th intra-day low (1812) because Wall Street still has inventory to unload.\u00a0That much is\u00a0par for the course. Yet the signs of an impending macroeconomic and profits\u00a0implosion are now\u00a0so overwhelming […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[12969,5979,2120,303,696,3650,7849,4318],"class_list":["post-18902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-business-sales","tag-contracorner","tag-david-stockman","tag-fed","tag-sp","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-us-recession","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18902"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18903,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18902\/revisions\/18903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}