{"id":18545,"date":"2016-03-06T16:34:46","date_gmt":"2016-03-06T21:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18545"},"modified":"2016-03-06T16:34:46","modified_gmt":"2016-03-06T21:34:46","slug":"peak-oil-in-the-south-china-sea-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18545","title":{"rendered":"Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

The recent deployment of\u00a0missile launchers<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0jet fighters<\/a>\u00a0on Woody Island of the Paracel islands have put the spotlight on the South China Sea (SCS).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fig 1: The 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone claimed by China around Woody Island and the overlapping 108 nm range of the HQ-9 SAM system. Image via ISI. [Image Sat International]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0http:\/\/defense-update.com\/20160218_woody_island_hq9.html<\/a><\/p>\n

In this post, we focus on oil production around the SCS.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Oil production (crude and NGLs)<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fig 2: Black triangles denote country peaks, the red triangle shows the SCS peak<\/p>\n

Oil production in 2015 was down around 14% from the peak in 2001.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fig 3: China dominates all of South China Sea\u2019s adjoining countries<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fig 4: China\u2019s monthly production 2013-2015<\/p>\n

Although production in 2015 was higher than in 2013 and 2014 it seems that production in the 4th<\/sup>quarter will not be much different from the previous years. A 100 kb\/d difference is just 1% of China\u2019s 2015 demand of 11.2 mb\/d (IEA January Oil Market Report, p 57)<\/p>\n

Chart of the Day: No turning back for China\u2019s oil production<\/strong><\/p>\n

21\/11\/2015
\nChina\u2019s domestic oil production likely peaked this year and is about to enter a long-term structural decline, according to Nomura.
\nhttp:\/\/www.scmp.com\/business\/commodities\/article\/1881188\/chart-day-no-turning-back-chinas-oil-production<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fig 5: Production of 3 oil majors in China<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1) The recent deployment of\u00a0missile launchers\u00a0and\u00a0jet fighters\u00a0on Woody Island of the Paracel islands have put the spotlight on the South China Sea (SCS). Fig 1: The 200 mile Economic Exclusion Zone claimed by China around Woody Island and the overlapping 108 nm range of the HQ-9 SAM […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[130,6292,12786,595,12785,617,1439,6658,12784],"class_list":["post-18545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-china","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-economic-exclusion-zone","tag-oil-production","tag-paracel-islands","tag-peak-oil","tag-south-china-sea","tag-south-east-asia","tag-woody-island"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18545"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18545\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18546,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18545\/revisions\/18546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}