{"id":18282,"date":"2016-02-26T11:55:24","date_gmt":"2016-02-26T16:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18282"},"modified":"2016-02-26T11:55:24","modified_gmt":"2016-02-26T16:55:24","slug":"world-trade-collapses-most-since-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18282","title":{"rendered":"World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis<\/a><\/h3>\n
One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world?<\/div>\n
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That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical?<\/p>\n

Those are the burning questions that keep central bankers (not to mention sellside economists) up at night and they are front and center at the G-20 in Shanghai.<\/p>\n

Warning signs abound. The Baltic Dry is in a veritable free fall. Germany\u2019s manufacturing juggernaut is\u00a0showing signs<\/a>\u00a0of faltering. The BRICS have ceased to be a reliable driver of global growth. US freight volumes are falling for the first time in years. And the list goes on.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have seen this burst of globalization, and now we\u2019re at a point of consolidation, maybe retrenchment,\u201d WTO chief economist Robert Koopman\u00a0said last autumn<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s almost like the timing belt on the global growth engine is a bit off or the cylinders are not firing as they should.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

As\u00a0we noted<\/a>\u00a0earlier this month, to the extent Maersk is a bellwether, things are looking pretty grim.\u00a0Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter and\u00a0the outlook for 2016 isn’t pretty either<\/strong>. The company now sees demand for seaborne container transportation rising a meager 1-3% for the year.<\/p>\n

On Thursday we got the latest evidence that the wheels are falling off. According to new data from\u00a0the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis\u2019s\u00a0World Trade Monitor,\u00a0global trade (defined as the value of goods that crossed international borders) plunged nearly 14% in 2015<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

That’s the first contraction since 2009.<\/strong><\/p>\n

“The new data released on Thursday represent the first snapshot of global trade for 2015,”\u00a0FT notes<\/a>. “But the figures also come amid growing concerns that 2016 is already shaping up to be more fraught with dangers for the global economy than previously expected.”<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Those are the burning questions that keep central bankers (not to mention […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10469,3594,1860,344,366,1357,12312,1479,7485,6404,896,4318],"class_list":["post-18282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-baltic-dry","tag-baltic-dry-index","tag-brics","tag-g20","tag-global-economy","tag-global-growth","tag-golden-goose","tag-netherlands","tag-world-trade","tag-world-trade-organisation","tag-wto","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18282"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18283,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18282\/revisions\/18283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}