{"id":18024,"date":"2016-02-19T16:57:18","date_gmt":"2016-02-19T21:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18024"},"modified":"2016-02-19T16:57:18","modified_gmt":"2016-02-19T21:57:18","slug":"has-the-market-crash-only-just-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=18024","title":{"rendered":"Has The Market Crash Only Just Begun?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Has The Market Crash Only Just Begun?<\/a><\/h3>\n
Having successfully called the market’s retreat in the fall of 2015, Universa’s Mark Spitznagel is not taking a victory lap as he warns\u00a0Bloomberg TV<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0“the crash has only just begun.”<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
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Investors are facing the most binary “let’s make a deal” market in history\u00a0<\/strong>in Spitznagel’s view: choose Door #1 to bet on Keynesianism, central planners, and monetary interventionism; or Door #2 to bet on free markets and natural price discovery.<\/p>\n

“There is massive cognitive dissonance here,”<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Spitznagel explains as history teaches us that door #2 is the right choice… but it’s not possible to do that today as investors have been coerced to choose door #1, but\u00a0when door #1 is slammed open “we will see that dreaded black swan monster.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

That is what is going on right now:<\/p>\n

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“Investors want to go with The Fed when it’s working – like David Zervos… the problem is, when do you know that it is not working?”<\/div>\n

“At some point this stops working…”<\/strong><\/p>\n

“the market is going through a resolution process, transitioning from the cognitive dissonance of Door #1 to the harsh reality of Door #2… if everyone were to change doors at the same time, that is a market crash…\u00a0it can’t be done in a non-messy way.”<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Must watch reality check behind the smoke and mirrors we call markets…\u00a0(we note Mark’s excellent analogy starting at around 3:10)<\/em><\/p>\n