{"id":17776,"date":"2016-02-14T17:33:31","date_gmt":"2016-02-14T22:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17776"},"modified":"2016-02-14T17:33:31","modified_gmt":"2016-02-14T22:33:31","slug":"just-how-accurate-are-the-eias-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17776","title":{"rendered":"Just How Accurate Are The EIA\u2019s Predictions?"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/just-how-accurate-are-the-eias-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\">Just How Accurate Are The EIA\u2019s Predictions?<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">The EIA recently published the February edition of their\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/forecasts\/steo\/\">Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/a>. If you follow this month to month, and I do, you will notice their prognostications change a little every month. And over several months those small changes can add up to some rather dramatic changes. Nevertheless, below are several charts with their current oil production projections.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>The EIA STEO only gives monthly data for total liquids. All C+C data is quarterly and annually. The monthly projected data begins in February 2016. Projections for quarterly and annual data begins January 2016.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11653\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Non-OPEC-Liquids.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Non-OPEC-Liquids-300x175.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Non-OPEC-Liquids.jpg 713x\" alt=\"ST Non-OPEC Liquids\" width=\"713\" height=\"416\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The EIA says Non-OPEC total liquids dropped .5 million barrels per day in December and another .36 mbd in January. But then, other than another short drop in the first quarter of 2017, they see things leveling out for the next two years.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11659\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-World-Liquids.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 741px) 100vw, 741px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-World-Liquids-300x168.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-World-Liquids.jpg 741x\" alt=\"ST World Liquids\" width=\"741\" height=\"416\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the total world, the EIA expects far better production numbers than just for Non-OPEC. They expect new highs to be reached in 2016 and again in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11660\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-US-Liquids-1.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 718px) 100vw, 718px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-US-Liquids-1-300x175.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-US-Liquids-1.jpg 718x\" alt=\"ST US Liquids\" width=\"718\" height=\"418\" \/><\/p>\n<p>They see US total liquids dropping in 2016 then they begin a slow rise through 2017, but not overtaking the peak in 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11655\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Russia-Liquids.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 733px) 100vw, 733px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Russia-Liquids-300x172.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ST-Russia-Liquids.jpg 733x\" alt=\"ST Russia Liquids\" width=\"733\" height=\"421\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Apparently the EIA thinks Russia has had it. They see a drop in December 2016 then a huge drop in January \u00a02017. I have no idea why. However the scale here makes the decline seem greater than it really is. From January 2015 to December 2017 the decline is only 400,000 barrels per day.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just How Accurate Are The EIA\u2019s Predictions? The EIA recently published the February edition of their\u00a0Short-Term Energy Outlook. If you follow this month to month, and I do, you will notice their prognostications change a little every month. And over several months those small changes can add up to some rather dramatic changes. Nevertheless, below [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[251,588,600,6245,2725,6074,7168],"class_list":["post-17776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-eia","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-predictions","tag-ron-patterson","tag-short-term-energy-outlook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17776"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17777,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17776\/revisions\/17777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}