{"id":17381,"date":"2016-02-04T11:26:49","date_gmt":"2016-02-04T16:26:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17381"},"modified":"2016-02-04T11:26:49","modified_gmt":"2016-02-04T16:26:49","slug":"the-ieas-oil-production-predictions-for-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17381","title":{"rendered":"The IEA\u2019s Oil Production Predictions for 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/the-ieas-oil-production-predictions-for-2016\/\" target=\"_blank\">The IEA\u2019s Oil Production Predictions for 2016<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/media\/omrreports\/fullissues\/2016-01-19.pdf\">IEA Oil Market Report<\/a>, full issue, is now available to the public. Some interesting observations:<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><em>Non-OPEC oil supplies are nevertheless seen sharply lower in December. Overall supplies are estimated to have slipped by more than 0.6 mb\/d from the month prior, to 57.4 mb\/d. A seasonal decline in biofuel production, largely due to the Brazilian sugar cane harvest, of nearly 0.4 mb\/d was the largest contributor to December\u2019s drop. Production in Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and the US was also seen easing from both November\u2019s level and compared with a year earlier. Persistently low production in Mexico and Yemen were other contributors to the year-on-year decline.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>As such, total non-OPEC liquids output slipped below the year earlier level for the first time since September 2012. A production surge in December 2014 inflates the annual decline rate, but the drop is nevertheless significant should these estimates be confirmed by firm data. Already in November, growth in non-OPEC supply had slipped to 640 kb\/d, from as much as 2.9 mb\/d at the end of 2014, and 2.4 mb\/d for 2014 as a whole. For 2015, supplies look likely to post an increase of 1.4 mb\/d for the year, before contracting by nearly 0.6 mb\/d in 2016. A prolonged period of oil at sub-$30\/bbl puts additional volumes at risk of shut in as realised prices fall close to operating costs for some producers.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11524\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Forecast-2.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 671px) 100vw, 671px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Forecast-2-300x213.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Forecast-2.jpg 671x\" alt=\"IEA Forecast 2\" width=\"671\" height=\"477\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The IEA has every month of 2016 Non-OPEC production below the year over year 2015 production.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-11525\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Non-OPEC-YoY.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 642px) 100vw, 642px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Non-OPEC-YoY-300x217.jpg 300x, http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/IEA-Non-OPEC-YoY.jpg 642x\" alt=\"IEA Non-OPEC YoY\" width=\"642\" height=\"464\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For the past four years, North America has carried the load as far as the increase in Non-OPEC production is concerned. Now the IEA believes North America will suffer the lions share of the decline in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IEA\u2019s Oil Production Predictions for 2016 The\u00a0IEA Oil Market Report, full issue, is now available to the public. Some interesting observations: Non-OPEC oil supplies are nevertheless seen sharply lower in December. Overall supplies are estimated to have slipped by more than 0.6 mb\/d from the month prior, to 57.4 mb\/d. A seasonal decline in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2291,416,1651,2736,595,596,600,6245,6074],"class_list":["post-17381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-2291","tag-iea","tag-non-opec","tag-oil-market-report","tag-oil-production","tag-oil-supply","tag-opec","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-ron-patterson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17381"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17382,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17381\/revisions\/17382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}