{"id":17142,"date":"2016-01-31T09:45:06","date_gmt":"2016-01-31T14:45:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17142"},"modified":"2016-01-31T09:45:06","modified_gmt":"2016-01-31T14:45:06","slug":"death-throes-of-the-bull","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=17142","title":{"rendered":"Death Throes Of The Bull"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Death Throes Of The Bull<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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The fast money and robo-machines keep trying to ignite stock\u00a0rallies, but they\u00a0all fizzle because bad karma is beginning to infect the casino. That is, apprehension is growing among\u00a0whatever adults are left on Wall Street that 84 months of ZIRP and $3.5 trillion of Fed balance sheet expansion, aka money printing, didn\u2019t do the trick.<\/p>\n

Not only is the specter of\u00a0recession<\/strong>\u00a0growing more visible, but it is also attached to a truth that cannot be gainsaid. Namely, having stranded itself at the zero bound for an entire business cycle, the Fed is bereft of dry powder. Its only available tools are a massive new round of QE and negative interest rates.<\/p>\n

But these are absolutely non-starters. The\u00a0former would provoke riots in the financial markets because it would be an admission of total\u00a0failure; and the latter would provoke a riot in the American body politic because the Fed\u2019s seven year\u00a0war on savers and retirees has already generated electoral revulsion. Bernie and The Donald are not expressions of public confidence in the economic status quo.<\/p>\n

So the dip buying brigades have been reduced to reading the tea leaves for signs that the Fed\u2019s four in store for 2016 are no more.\u00a0Yet even if the\u00a0prospect of delayed rate hikes\u00a0is good for a\u00a050-handle face ripping rally on the S&P 500 index from time to time, here\u2019s what it can\u2019t do. The Fed\u2019s last card\u2014-deferring one or more of the tiny\u00a0interest rate increases scheduled\u00a0for this year\u2014\u2014cannot stop the on-coming recession.<\/p>\n

And it is surely coming. We got one more powerful indicator on that score in this morning\u2019s data on\u00a0core capital goods orders (i.e. nondefense excluding aircraft).<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Death Throes Of The Bull The fast money and robo-machines keep trying to ignite stock\u00a0rallies, but they\u00a0all fizzle because bad karma is beginning to infect the casino. That is, apprehension is growing among\u00a0whatever adults are left on Wall Street that 84 months of ZIRP and $3.5 trillion of Fed balance sheet expansion, aka money printing, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1750,5186,5979,2120,303,305,534,558,1389,661,662,1264,860,1940,1939],"class_list":["post-17142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bear-market","tag-bull-market","tag-contracorner","tag-david-stockman","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-monetary-policy","tag-negative-interest-rates","tag-nirp","tag-qe","tag-quantitative-easing","tag-recession","tag-wall-street","tag-zero-interest-rate-policy","tag-zirp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17143,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17142\/revisions\/17143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}