{"id":16792,"date":"2016-01-21T13:30:53","date_gmt":"2016-01-21T18:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16792"},"modified":"2016-01-21T13:30:53","modified_gmt":"2016-01-21T18:30:53","slug":"the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16792","title":{"rendered":"The myth of US self-sufficiency in crude oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

The myth of US self-sufficiency in crude oil<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Google for \u201cUS energy independence\u201d and you will get 134k results, \u201cUS self sufficiency\u201d yields 10k results. Here are some examples of what the media reports:<\/p>\n

In Aljazeera\u2019s Inside Story, 10\/1\/2016, titled \u201cHow much support will Saudi Arabia win against Iran?\u201d the delicate relationship between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran is discussed with 3 panellists. The moderator wanted answers in the context of \u201cthe US is almost at a tipping point, is almost energy independent..\u201d
\nhttp:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/programmes\/insidestory\/2016\/01\/saudi-arabia-iran-160110170443000.html<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-xvjeUKpkP8<\/a>\u00a0(18:45)<\/p>\n

In the\u00a0State of the Union Address 2014<\/a>\u00a0Obama proudly announced: \u201cToday, America is closer to energy independence than we\u2019ve been in decades\u201d. In the latest SOUA on 12th January 2016, we hear:\u00a0\u201cMeanwhile, we\u2019ve cut our imports of foreign oil by nearly sixty percent\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

On 16\/1\/2016, the 7pm news of Australia\u2019s public broadcaster ABC TV had this snippet:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2016-01-16\/benefits-of-falling-oil-prices-not-fully-passed-on-to-motorists\/7091862?section=business<\/a><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at the data:<\/p>\n

Crude imports<\/strong><\/h4>\n

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Fig 1: US crude oil production, imports and exports<\/p>\n

The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb\/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb\/d. Exports were only around 500 kb\/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). Let\u2019s zoom into the period since 2007, the peak year of imports.<\/p>\n

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Fig 2: US crude production vs imports since 2007<\/p>\n

We have several phases in this crude oil import history:<\/p>\n