{"id":16703,"date":"2016-01-19T16:35:23","date_gmt":"2016-01-19T21:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16703"},"modified":"2016-01-19T16:35:23","modified_gmt":"2016-01-19T21:35:23","slug":"oil-price-crash-how-low-will-the-oil-price-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16703","title":{"rendered":"Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/euanmearns.com\/oil-price-crash-how-low-will-the-oil-price-go\/\" target=\"_blank\">Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go?<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">I have been following the oil price crash since it began in late 2014, providing annual forecast scenarios and monthly vital statistics updates. There has recently been an acceleration in activity and news, and as the oil price has continued its fall to below $30, investors and speculators wrestle with the main question: \u201chow low will the oil price go?\u201d<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>In August 2015 I gave a crude answer to that question based on history in a post called\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/euanmearns.com\/the-oil-price-how-low-is-low\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Oil Price: how low is low?<\/a>\u00a0where I observed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>To get straight to the point. Brent will need to fall below $30 to match the lows seen in 1986 and to below $20 to match the lows seen in 1998.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This observation was based on deflated\u00a0<strong>annual average price<\/strong>\u00a0from BP ($2014). The notion of $20 oil has since\u00a0caught on and some commentators are now speculating that $10 is possible. It is time to have a closer look at what history tells us.<\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published\u00a0on the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/euanmearns.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Energy Matters<\/a>\u00a0blog.<\/p>\n<p>First a look at recent oil price action.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.euanmearns.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/oilprice15jan16.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.euanmearns.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/oilprice15jan16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"80%\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1<\/strong>\u00a0Long term picture of WTI and Brent daily spot oil prices. The most recent falls have taken the oil price to the 2008 lows that technically may provide price support. But supply demand fundamentals are against that. The last time we had an over-supply based rout was 1998\/99 (arrow) where in money of the day, Brent bottomed at $10\/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that is approximately $15\/bbl in today\u2019s money.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>On a money of the day basis, the oil price has now reached the lows, and support level, seen in the wake of the 2008 finance crash. In detail, the support level has already been pricked and on a deflated basis, that support is already broken.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go? I have been following the oil price crash since it began in late 2014, providing annual forecast scenarios and monthly vital statistics updates. There has recently been an acceleration in activity and news, and as the oil price has continued its fall to below $30, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[4333,11260,11842,588,592,1775],"class_list":["post-16703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-crude","tag-energy-matters","tag-euan-mearns","tag-oil","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-price-collapse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16703"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16704,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16703\/revisions\/16704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}