{"id":16514,"date":"2016-01-15T20:07:46","date_gmt":"2016-01-16T01:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16514"},"modified":"2016-01-15T20:07:46","modified_gmt":"2016-01-16T01:07:46","slug":"you-can-either-surf-or-you-can-fight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16514","title":{"rendered":"You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"post-header\">\n<h3 class=\"post-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.salientpartners.com\/epsilontheory\/post\/2016\/01\/14\/you-can-either-surf-or-you-can-fight\">You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"post-info clearfix\"><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"post-body text\">\n<div>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Kilgore:<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Smell that? You smell that?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"166\"><strong>Lance:<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"426\">What?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Kilgore:<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>Napalm, son. \u00a0Nothing else in the world smells like that.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u2013\u00a0<i>&#8220;Apocalypse Now&#8221; (1979)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div align=\"left\">\n<div>\n<p><strong>Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3]<br \/>\n<\/strong>\u2013\u00a0<em>Nirvana, &#8220;Smells Like Teen Spirit&#8221; (1991)<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div align=\"left\">\n<div>\n<p><strong>Outside the bus the smell of\u00a0sulfur\u00a0hit Bond with sickening force. \u00a0It was a horrible smell, from somewhere down in the stomach of the world.<br \/>\n<\/strong>\u2013\u00a0<em>Ian Fleming, &#8220;Diamonds Are Forever&#8221; (1956)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>There\u2019s more than a whiff of 2008 in the air. The sources of systemic financial sector risk are different this time (they always are), but\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.salientpartners.com\/epsilontheory\/post\/2016\/01\/07\/The-China-Narrative-Really-Matters\">China and the global industrial\/commodity complex are even larger tectonic plates than the US housing market, and their shifts are no less destructive.<\/a>\u00a0There\u2019s also more than a whiff of 1938 in the air (hat tip to Ray Dalio), as we have a Fed that is apparently hell-bent on raising rates even as a Category 5 deflationary hurricane heads our way, even as the yield curve continues to flatten.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>What really stinks of 2008 to me is the dismissive, condescending manner of our market Missionaries (to use the game theory lingo), who insist that the US energy and manufacturing sectors are somehow a separate animal from the US economy, who proclaim that China and its monetary policy are \u201cwell contained\u201d and pose little risk to US markets. Unfortunately, the role and influence of Missionaries is even greater today in this policy-driven market, and profoundly misleading media Narratives reverberate everywhere.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>For example, we all know that it\u2019s the overwhelming oil \u201cglut\u201d that\u2019s driving oil prices down and wreaking havoc in capital markets, right? It\u2019s all about OPEC versus US frackers, right?<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son. \u00a0Nothing else in the world smells like that. \u2013\u00a0&#8220;Apocalypse Now&#8221; (1979) Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3] \u2013\u00a0Nirvana, &#8220;Smells Like Teen Spirit&#8221; (1991) Outside the bus the smell of\u00a0sulfur\u00a0hit Bond with sickening force. \u00a0It was a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10321,11737,303,305,431,534,600,839,846,4069],"class_list":["post-16514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-ben-hunt","tag-epsilon-theory","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-opec","tag-us-dollar","tag-us-shale-oil","tag-yellen"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16514"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16514\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16515,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16514\/revisions\/16515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}