{"id":16110,"date":"2016-01-06T14:45:07","date_gmt":"2016-01-06T19:45:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16110"},"modified":"2016-01-06T14:47:03","modified_gmt":"2016-01-06T19:47:03","slug":"a-disturbing-warning-from-ubs-buy-gold-because-a-30-bear-market-is-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=16110","title":{"rendered":"A Disturbing Warning From UBS: “Buy Gold” Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: “Buy Gold” Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming<\/a><\/h3>\n
As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year’s volatility are out with their forecast for 2016.\u00a0It’s simple – Sell Stocks, Buy Gold.<\/strong><\/u><\/em><\/div>\n
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UBS Technical Analysts Michael Riesner and Marc M\u00fcller warn the\u00a0seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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UBS expects S&P 500 to move into a 2Q top and\u00a0fall into a full size bear market, with risk of a 20% to 30% correction into minimum later 2016\u00a0<\/strong><\/u>and worst case early 2017<\/p>\n

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“The comeback of volatility was the title of our 2015 strategy.\u00a0Last year\u2019s rise in volatility was in our view just the beginning for a dramatic rise in cross-asset volatility over the next few years,”<\/strong><\/div>\n

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Noting that while equities have had a good run, Risener and Muller warn,\u00a0“we are definitely more in the late stages of a bull market instead of being at the beginning of a new major breakout.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Our key message for 2016 is that even if we were to see another extension in price and time, we see\u00a0the 2009 bull cycle in a mature stage, which suggests the risk of seeing a significant bear cycle event in one to two years.<\/strong><\/div>\n

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S&P-500 trades in 4th longest bull market since 1900 Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It\u2019s a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the S&P-500 now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind, since 1937 the average downside in a 7-year cycle decline was 34%…<\/strong><\/u><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: “Buy Gold” Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year’s volatility are out with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1750,7576,374,9932,11532,4919,11533,572,670,753,1029,2773,4318],"class_list":["post-16110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bear-market","tag-etc","tag-gold","tag-high-yield","tag-moving-averages","tag-nasdaq","tag-nasdaq-composite","tag-nikkei","tag-recovery","tag-stocks","tag-ubs","tag-volatility","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16110"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16113,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16110\/revisions\/16113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}