{"id":15658,"date":"2015-12-25T10:03:53","date_gmt":"2015-12-25T15:03:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15658"},"modified":"2015-12-25T14:15:36","modified_gmt":"2015-12-25T19:15:36","slug":"opecs-2015-world-oil-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15658","title":{"rendered":"OPEC\u2019s 2015 World Oil Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/opec-2015-world-oil-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\">OPEC\u2019s 2015 World Oil Outlook<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">The\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.opec.org\/opec_web\/static_files_project\/media\/downloads\/publications\/WOO%202015.pdf\">OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook<\/a>\u00a0came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found\u00a0their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases to optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic\u2026 in most cases.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and \u201cliquids\u201d\u00a0only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Med.-Term-Outlook.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10809\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Med.-Term-Outlook.jpg\" alt=\"OPEC Med. Term Outlook\" width=\"700\" height=\"539\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is their medium term outlook chart. Notice they expect both OPEC and Non-OPEC crude to decline in 2016 but Non-OPEC crude starts a slow recovery in 2017. They say OPEC crude will not start their recovery until 2019.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Long-Term-Outlook.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10812\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Long-Term-Outlook.jpg\" alt=\"OPEC Long Term Outlook\" width=\"702\" height=\"539\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is their long term outlook. Notice the tremendous growth in \u201cOther Liquids\u201d, whatever that is.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-Non-OPEC-Crude.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10815\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-Non-OPEC-Crude.png\" alt=\"OPEC Outlook Non-OPEC Crude\" width=\"666\" height=\"411\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>OPEC expects Non-OPEC crude to be down in 2016 but to begin a slow recovery in 2017. I think that outlook is way too optimistic.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-OPEC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10816\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-OPEC.png\" alt=\"OPEC Outlook OPEC\" width=\"664\" height=\"414\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>OPEC thinks their short term production has peaked and will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year and hold on a flat plateau until sometime after 2010.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-World-Crude.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10814\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/OPEC-Outlook-World-Crude.png\" alt=\"OPEC Outlook World Crude\" width=\"652\" height=\"410\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Adding OPEC and Non-OPEC crude we see that OPEC thinks World crude production will decline next year but begin a slow increase starting in 2017. Also notice that OPEC\u2019s estimate of current crude production is well below what the EIA says is being produced and even below JODI\u2019s production numbers. I think this is because OPEC does not count Condensate. Other than that I do not have an explanation.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OPEC\u2019s 2015 World Oil Outlook The\u00a0OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook\u00a0came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found\u00a0their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases to optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[600,6245,6074,11240],"class_list":["post-15658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-opec","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-ron-patterson","tag-world-oil-outlook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15658"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15658\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15659,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15658\/revisions\/15659"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}