{"id":15195,"date":"2015-12-12T09:05:23","date_gmt":"2015-12-12T14:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15195"},"modified":"2015-12-12T09:05:23","modified_gmt":"2015-12-12T14:05:23","slug":"cant-argue-with-a-confident-man","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15195","title":{"rendered":"Can’t Argue With a Confident Man"},"content":{"rendered":"
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CAN\u2019T ARGUE WITH A CONFIDENT MAN<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
\u201cI can say therefore with confidence \u2013 and without any complacency \u2013 that we will secure the return of inflation to 2% without undue delay, because we are currently deploying tools that we believe will achieve this, and because we can, in any case, deploy our tools further if that proves necessary.\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u2013 Former Goldman Sachs employee and ECB President Mario Draghi, 4 December 2015.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou have what degree of confidence in your ability to control this [inflation] ?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c100%.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2013 Ben Bernanke being interviewed on \u201960 Minutes\u2019, 5 December 2010.<\/p>\n

\u201cDo not arouse the wrath of the great and powerful Oz ! ..Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2013 The Wizard of Oz.<\/p>\n

In economics, the<\/strong>\u00a0fancy-sounding \u2018general equilibrium theory\u2019 holds that in a complex economy, a set of prices exists that will result in an overall (general) equilibrium. This theory was brought to you in large part by the economist and idiot L\u00e9on Walras, whose principles only exist in the first place because he stole them from the world of physics.<\/p>\n

But \u2018general equilibrium theory\u2019 is not the only economic theory addressing order, or the lack of it, in markets. George Soros advocates an alternative which he terms \u2018reflexivity\u2019:<\/p>\n

\u201c..financial markets can create inaccurate expectations and then change reality to accord with them. This is the opposite of the process described in textbooks and built into economic models, which always assume that financial expectations adapt to reality, not the other way round.\u201d<\/p>\n

Walras spent his last years lonely, bitter and afflicted by dementia. George Soros is a billionaire. Draw your own conclusions as to which of these theories is more likely to be correct.<\/p>\n

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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CAN\u2019T ARGUE WITH A CONFIDENT MAN \u201cI can say therefore with confidence \u2013 and without any complacency \u2013 that we will secure the return of inflation to 2% without undue delay, because we are currently deploying tools that we believe will achieve this, and because we can, in any case, deploy our tools further if […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[68,7380,233,4918,11008,303,305,1849,1044],"class_list":["post-15195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-ben-bernanke","tag-cobden-centre","tag-ecb","tag-economic-theory","tag-equilibrium","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-mario-draghi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15195"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15195\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15196,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15195\/revisions\/15196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}