{"id":15078,"date":"2015-12-08T07:28:43","date_gmt":"2015-12-08T12:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15078"},"modified":"2015-12-08T07:39:59","modified_gmt":"2015-12-08T12:39:59","slug":"jp-morgan-and-citigroup-agree-that-the-u-s-economy-is-steamrolling-toward-a-recession-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=15078","title":{"rendered":"JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
\n

\"Locomotive<\/a>As we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is rising.\u00a0 Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives asked Janet Yellen about Citigroup\u2019s assessment that there is a 65 percent chance that the United States will experience an economic recession in 2016.\u00a0 You can read her answer below.\u00a0 And just a few days ago, JP Morgan economists Michael Feroli, Daniel Silver, Jesse Edgerton, and Robert Mellman released a report in which they declared that \u201cthe probability of recession within three years\u201d has risen to\u00a0\u201can eye-catching 76%\u201d<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cOur longer-run indicators, however, continue to suggest an elevated risk that the expansion is nearing its end, and our preferred model now puts the probability of recession within three years at an eye-catching 76%.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The good news is that the economists at JP Morgan believe that a recession will probably not hit us within the next six months.\u00a0 But due to steadily weakening economic conditions, they are convinced that one is almost certain to strike\u00a0within the next few years<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we first wrote, only manufacturing sentiment was signaling an above-average probability of imminent recession,\u201d they said. \u201cBut recent weakening in the Richmond Fed services survey and the ISM nonmanufacturing index have now pushed the nonmanufacturing sentiment probability up somewhat as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the short term, the note says that the 6-month likelihood is only 5%, but within a year it stands at 23%, in two years 48%, and in three years the \u201ceye-popping\u201d 76%.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To be honest, I believe that this assessment is far too optimistic, and it appears that researchers at Citigroup agree with me.\u00a0 According to them, there is a\u00a065 percent chance<\/strong>\u00a0that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession by the end of next year.\u00a0 Last week, Janet Yellen was asked about this\u00a0during testimony before Congress<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

JP Morgan And Citigroup Agree That The U.S. Economy Is Steamrolling Toward A Recession As we approach the end of 2015, researchers at both JP Morgan and Citigroup agree that the probability that the U.S. economy will soon plunge into recession is rising.\u00a0 Just last week, a member of the U.S. House of Representatives asked […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1718,5983,303,305,451,2267,4901,1264,841],"class_list":["post-15078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-citigroup","tag-economiccollapseblog","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-janet-yellen","tag-jp-morgan","tag-michael-snyder","tag-recession","tag-us-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15078"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15078\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15080,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15078\/revisions\/15080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}