{"id":14842,"date":"2015-11-27T07:57:04","date_gmt":"2015-11-27T12:57:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14842"},"modified":"2015-11-27T07:57:38","modified_gmt":"2015-11-27T12:57:38","slug":"avoiding-the-climate-catastrophe-not-so-easy-as-many-people-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14842","title":{"rendered":"Avoiding the climate catastrophe: not so easy as many people think"},"content":{"rendered":"

Avoiding the climate catastrophe: not so easy as many people think<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Last month, Kevin Anderson published a very interesting article on “Nature Geosciences<\/a>” (12 Oct 2015). The article may be behind a paywall, but most of it is reported in\u00a0Anderson’s blog<\/a>. \u00a0Let me summarize it for you\u00a0because it goes to the heart of the problem: the transition is NOT going to be easy, as many people say. Installing double paned windows and using hybrid cars will not be enough; not at all, at least as long as we want to maintain business as usual in terms of economic growth.First of all, Anderson states about the current plans (boldface mine):<\/p>\n

If these up-beat \u2014 and largely uncontested \u2014 headlines are to be believed, reducing emissions in line with a reasonable-to-good chance of meeting the 2 \u00b0C target requires an accelerated evolution away from fossils;\u00a0it does not, however, necessitate a revolutionary transition\u00a0<\/b>in how we use and produce energy. Such conclusions are forthcoming from many Integrated Assessment Models, which are key tools for informing policy makers of alternative climate change futures.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But things are not so easy, according to Anderson:<\/p>\n

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In most Integrated Assessment Models, 2 \u00b0C carbon budgets are effectively increased through the adoption of\u00a0negative-emission technologies<\/b>. These technologies are currently at\u00a0little more than a conceptual stage of development<\/b>, yet are ubiquitous within 2 \u00b0C scenarios. Nowhere is this more evident than in the IPCC’s scenario database. Of the 400 scenarios that have a 50% or better chance of no more than 2 \u00b0C warming (with three scenarios removed due to incomplete data),\u00a0344 assume the successful and large-scale uptake of negative-emission technologie<\/b>s. Even more worryingly, in all 56 scenarios without negative emissions,\u00a0global emissions peak around 2010, which is contrary to available emissions data<\/b>.<\/b><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avoiding the climate catastrophe: not so easy as many people think Last month, Kevin Anderson published a very interesting article on “Nature Geosciences” (12 Oct 2015). The article may be behind a paywall, but most of it is reported in\u00a0Anderson’s blog. \u00a0Let me summarize it for you\u00a0because it goes to the heart of the problem: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[113,10777,141,1004,440,10778,10779,2692],"class_list":["post-14842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-cassandras-legacy","tag-climate-change","tag-co2","tag-ipcc","tag-kevin-anderson","tag-natural-geosciences","tag-ugo-bardi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14842"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14844,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14842\/revisions\/14844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}