{"id":14756,"date":"2015-11-24T16:56:02","date_gmt":"2015-11-24T21:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14756"},"modified":"2015-11-25T15:58:54","modified_gmt":"2015-11-25T20:58:54","slug":"technically-speaking-the-real-value-of-cash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14756","title":{"rendered":"Technically Speaking: The Real Value Of Cash"},"content":{"rendered":"

Technically Speaking: The Real Value Of Cash<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

With the\u00a0“inmates running the asylum”<\/em>\u00a0during a holiday-shortened trading week, the upward bias to the market is set to continue. However, as I\u00a0addressed last week:<\/a><\/p>\n

“As we progress through the last two months of the year, historical tendencies suggest a bias to the upside.<\/strong>\u00a0This is particularly the case given the weakness this past summer which has left many mutual and hedge funds trailing their benchmarks.\u00a0The need to play ‘catch-up’ will likely create a push into larger capitalization stocks as portfolios are ‘window dressed’ for year end reporting.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This traditional ‘Santa Claus’ rally, however, does not guarantee the resumption of the ongoing ‘bull market’ into 2016.<\/strong>\u00a0The chart below lays out my expectation for the market through the end of the year.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"SP500-MarketUpdate-112315-2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

“With the markets currently oversold on a very short-term basis, the current probability is a rally into the ‘Thanksgiving’ holiday next week and potentially into the first week of December.<\/strong>\u00a0As opposed to my rudimentary projections, the push higher will likely be a ‘choppy’ advance rather than a straight line.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So far, the analysis over the last several weeks has continued to play out as expected. However, and this is crucially important,\u00a0a near-term expectation of a bullish advance<\/strong>due to the recent correction and seasonal tendencies\u00a0is not the same as long-term bullish outlook.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

As stated above, while seasonality likely holds the cards through the end of this year, projecting much beyond that window is foolishness.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Real Value Of Cash<\/strong><\/p>\n

This brings to mind a call I had on the radio show recently discussing his advisor’s\u00a0reluctance to hold cash.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The argument against holding cash goes this way:<\/p>\n

“If you hold cash you lose value over time to inflation.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is a true statement if you hold cash for an EXTREMELY long period.\u00a0However, holding cash as a\u00a0“hedge”<\/em>\u00a0against market volatility during periods of elevated uncertainty is a different matter entirely.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Technically Speaking: The Real Value Of Cash With the\u00a0“inmates running the asylum”\u00a0during a holiday-shortened trading week, the upward bias to the market is set to continue. However, as I\u00a0addressed last week: “As we progress through the last two months of the year, historical tendencies suggest a bias to the upside.\u00a0This is particularly the case given […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1035,5065,426,8511,4427,10753],"class_list":["post-14756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-cash","tag-hedge","tag-inflation","tag-lance-roberts","tag-market-volatility","tag-street-talk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14756"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14757,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14756\/revisions\/14757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}