{"id":14754,"date":"2015-11-24T15:58:13","date_gmt":"2015-11-24T20:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14754"},"modified":"2015-11-24T15:58:13","modified_gmt":"2015-11-24T20:58:13","slug":"presenting-socgens-5-black-swans-for-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14754","title":{"rendered":"Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016<\/a><\/h3>\n

If you\u2019re the type who likes black swans this has been the month for you.<\/p>\n

On the political front, Portugal\u2019s Socialists, led by Antonio Costa, formed an alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists on the way to\u00a0overthrowing the Passos Coelho government<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0presaging a repudiation of Berlin\u2019s brand of fiscal rectitude.<\/strong>\u00a0This throws the country\u2019s austerity program into doubt and sets up not only a confrontation with the troika, but also the potential loss of access to ECB QE should a deteriorating fiscal situation prompt a DBRS downgrade.<\/p>\n

In Spain, Catalonia is in the\u00a0midst of a secession bid<\/a>\u00a0which, depending on Catalan political infighting and how far Rajoy wants to push things ahead of national elections set for next month,\u00a0could see a fifth of Spain\u2019s GDP separate, causing Spanish debt-to-GDP to jump by some 25%.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

As far as geopolitics goes, ISIS Sinai downed a Russian passenger plane killing all 224 people on board and then, not even two weeks later, ISIS proper waged war in the streets of Paris killing 130 people. As if those two bombshells weren\u2019t enough, Turkey decided to shoot down a Russian fighter jet this morning.<\/p>\n

Finally, 12 month forwards for the Saudi riyal seem to indicate that the market believes the three decade-old dollar peg is about to fall under pressure from slumping crude and falling FX reserves. BofAML\u00a0calls the possibility<\/a>\u00a0of a Saudi depeg the \u201cnumber one black swan event for the global oil market in 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n

And those are just the black swans that have landed in the last 30 days.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

In its latest quarterly Global Economic Outlook,\u00a0SocGen takes a look at five political and economic black swans that could touch down in 2016 and also warns that<\/strong>\u00a0\u201chigh levels of public sector debt, already overburdened monetary policy, still high debt stocks and on-going balance sheet clean ups in a number of economies leave the global economy will a low level of ammunition to deal with new shocks.”<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016 If you\u2019re the type who likes black swans this has been the month for you. On the political front, Portugal\u2019s Socialists, led by Antonio Costa, formed an alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists on the way to\u00a0overthrowing the Passos Coelho government\u00a0and\u00a0presaging a repudiation of Berlin\u2019s brand […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[1552,233,1721,353,1239,446,447,4696,661,694,701,6770,743,4318],"class_list":["post-14754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-black-swan-event","tag-ecb","tag-fx-reserves","tag-gdp","tag-is","tag-isis","tag-islamic-state","tag-portugal","tag-qe","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-socgen","tag-spain","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14754"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14755,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14754\/revisions\/14755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}