{"id":14707,"date":"2015-11-24T07:05:31","date_gmt":"2015-11-24T12:05:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14707"},"modified":"2015-11-24T07:05:31","modified_gmt":"2015-11-24T12:05:31","slug":"one-big-shock-away-from-a-global-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14707","title":{"rendered":"\u201cOne Big Shock Away from a Global Downturn\u2026\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"art-postheader\"><a title=\"Permanent Link to \u201cOne Big Shock Away from a Global Downturn\u2026\u201d\" href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/?p=41557\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u201cOne Big Shock Away from a Global Downturn\u2026\u201d<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Zombies vs. Cronies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>DUBLIN \u2013 Most elections these days are contests between cronies and zombies. The left favors the zombies. The right favors the cronies.<\/p>\n<p>In yesterday\u2019s presidential elections in Argentina the zombies lost. It\u2019s time for the cronies to take over.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-41559\" src=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/11\/Mauricio-Macri-e13547230287911-1024x715.jpg\" alt=\"Mauricio-Macri-e13547230287911\" width=\"640\" height=\"447\" \/>New Argentine president Mauricio Macri \u2013 the era of the Kirchner dynasty is over.<br \/>\nPhoto via diarioz.com.ar<\/p>\n<p>More on that\u00a0tomorrow \u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Big Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The financial news continues to confound and confuse investors. The Fed is telling one story. The world economy is telling another.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is talking about increasing the federal funds rate \u2013 eventually getting rates back to \u201cnormal\u201d \u2013 because the U.S. economy is so healthy. Meanwhile, the world heads toward deflation.<\/p>\n<p>Says Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWe are now just one big shock away from a global downturn, and the next one seems most likely to originate in China, where heavy debt, excessive investment, and population decline are combining to undermine growth\u2026\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But it looks to us as though the global downturn is already here. First, the Baltic Dry Index is at a record low.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/11\/BDI.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-41558\" src=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/11\/BDI.png\" alt=\"BDI\" width=\"640\" height=\"283\" \/><\/a>The Baltic has been hung out to dry \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s Bloomberg with the full story:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe cost of shipping commodities fell to a record, amid signs that Chinese demand growth for iron ore and coal is slowing, hurting the industry\u2019s biggest source of cargoes.<\/p>\n<p>The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates for everything from coal to ore to grains, fell to 504 points\u00a0on Thursday, the lowest data from the London-based Baltic Exchange going back to 1985.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And falling shipping costs aren\u2019t the only sign of global deflation\u2026<\/p>\n<p>In October, construction and mining equipment maker Caterpillar posted another month of falling sales \u2013 making it 35 in a row.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cOne Big Shock Away from a Global Downturn\u2026\u201d Zombies vs. Cronies DUBLIN \u2013 Most elections these days are contests between cronies and zombies. The left favors the zombies. The right favors the cronies. In yesterday\u2019s presidential elections in Argentina the zombies lost. It\u2019s time for the cronies to take over. New Argentine president Mauricio Macri [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,3594,6190,5939,130,1851,10722,202,303,305,391,903],"class_list":["post-14707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-baltic-dry-index","tag-bill-bonner","tag-caterpillar","tag-china","tag-commodity-price-collapse","tag-cronies","tag-deflation","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-growth","tag-zombies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14707"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14707\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14708,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14707\/revisions\/14708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}