{"id":14475,"date":"2015-11-16T07:33:56","date_gmt":"2015-11-16T12:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14475"},"modified":"2015-11-16T07:33:56","modified_gmt":"2015-11-16T12:33:56","slug":"iea-us-40-oil-means-3-mpd-less-oil-by-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14475","title":{"rendered":"IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp\/d less oil by 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/iea-us-40-oil-means-3-mpd-less-oil-by-2020\" rel=\"bookmark\">IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp\/d less oil by 2020<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-content clearfix\">\n<p>You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb\/d less US tight (shale) oil by 2020. \u00a0That\u2019s about 4% of global crude production.<\/p>\n<p>Fly less and drive less.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/US_tight_oil-change_2015-2020_IEA_WEO2015.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7471\" title=\"US_tight_oil-change_2015-2020_IEA_WEO2015\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/US_tight_oil-change_2015-2020_IEA_WEO2015.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"451\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1: Slide from the WEO 2015 presentation<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.worldenergyoutlook.org\/media\/weowebsite\/2015\/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdf\">http:\/\/www.worldenergyoutlook.org\/media\/weowebsite\/2015\/151110_WEO2015_presentation.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0Let\u2019s put that into a graph for the $50 scenario:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/US_crude_production_USD_50_scenario_2020_IEA_WEO_Nov-2015.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7485\" title=\"US_crude_production_USD_50_scenario_2020_IEA_WEO_Nov-2015\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/US_crude_production_USD_50_scenario_2020_IEA_WEO_Nov-2015.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"405\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 2: US monthly crude production<\/p>\n<p>The graph shows a 4 mb\/d increase in US crude oil production, mainly tight oil from Texas (Eagle Ford, Permian), North Dakota (Bakken) and Niobrara (Colorado, Wyoming) between 2011 and 2015. The other States plus the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska remained on an undulating production plateau. The red production line descends by 2.5 mb\/d over 5 years to 2020, \u00a0with an oil price of $50 a barrel (dashed black line)<\/p>\n<p>The EIA data for the above graph are from here:<\/p>\n<p>US crude oil<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=MCRFPUS2&amp;f=M\">http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=MCRFPUS2&amp;f=M<\/a><\/p>\n<p>WTI oil price<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=rwtc&amp;f=m\">http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=rwtc&amp;f=m<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The latest drilling productivity report from here<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/drilling\/\">http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/drilling\/<\/a><br \/>\nshows some details about peaking tight oil production<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Bakken<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bakken_Drilling_Report_EIA_Nov_2015.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7473\" title=\"Bakken_Drilling_Report_EIA_Nov_2015\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bakken_Drilling_Report_EIA_Nov_2015.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"507\" height=\"603\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mp\/d less oil by 2020 You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb\/d less US tight (shale) oil by 2020. \u00a0That\u2019s about 4% of global crude production. Fly less [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6292,416,433,442,484,1775,595,701,827,846,1090],"class_list":["post-14475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-iraq","tag-libya","tag-oil-price-collapse","tag-oil-production","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-united-states","tag-us-shale-oil","tag-world-energy-outlook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14475"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14475\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14476,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14475\/revisions\/14476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}