{"id":14450,"date":"2015-11-15T18:35:19","date_gmt":"2015-11-15T23:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14450"},"modified":"2015-11-15T18:35:53","modified_gmt":"2015-11-15T23:35:53","slug":"weekly-commentary-risk-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14450","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Commentary: Risk Off?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly Commentary: Risk Off?<\/a><\/h3>\n
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The \u201cGranddaddy of All Bubbles\u201d thesis rests upon the view that the world is in the midst of the precarious grand finale of a multi-decade global Credit and financial Bubble. When a Bubble bursts, system reflation requires an even larger fresh new Bubble. This has repeatedly been the case going back at least to the \u201cdecade of greed\u201d late-eighties Bubble in the U.S. These days the world confronts the terminal Bubble phase partially because of the unprecedented scope of the China and EM Bubbles. It\u2019s simply difficult to imagine another more far-reaching Bubble.<\/p>\n

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Also critical to the finale Bubble thesis is that the \u201cglobal government finance Bubble\u201d – encompassing unprecedented excesses in sovereign debt, central bank Credit and government market manipulation – has engulfed the very foundation of contemporary \u201cmoney\u201d and Credit. It\u2019s again quite a challenge to envisage a new financial Bubble inflation cycle following a crisis of confidence at the heart of global finance.<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve posited repeatedly, the global Bubble has been pierced. There’s more confirmation again this week. \u00a0The collapse in commodities and EM currencies along with the faltering Chinese financial Bubble mark an historic inflection point. Global policymakers have gone to incredible measures to stabilize market, financial and economic backdrops. Yet reflationary measures will continue to only further destabilize.<\/p>\n

When policy-induced \u201crisk on\u201d is overpowering global securities markets, fragilities remain well concealed (and my prognosis appears ridiculous). Fragilities, however, swiftly manifest with the reappearance of \u201crisk off.\u201d \u00a0Rather quickly securities markets demonstrate their proclivity for illiquidity and so-called \u201cflash crashes.\u201d So after an unsettled week in global markets, the critical issue is whether \u201crisk on\u201d is giving way to \u201crisk off\u201d dynamics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly Commentary: Risk Off? The \u201cGranddaddy of All Bubbles\u201d thesis rests upon the view that the world is in the midst of the precarious grand finale of a multi-decade global Credit and financial Bubble. When a Bubble bursts, system reflation requires an even larger fresh new Bubble. This has repeatedly been the case going back […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1806,124,1851,175,7756,195,3920,426],"class_list":["post-14450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bubble","tag-central-banks","tag-commodity-price-collapse","tag-credit","tag-credit-bubble-bulletin","tag-debt","tag-financial-bubble","tag-inflation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14450"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14452,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14450\/revisions\/14452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}