{"id":14041,"date":"2015-11-01T09:21:45","date_gmt":"2015-11-01T14:21:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14041"},"modified":"2015-11-01T09:21:45","modified_gmt":"2015-11-01T14:21:45","slug":"another-black-swan-turkey-holds-snap-elections-amid-nato-backed-civil-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=14041","title":{"rendered":"Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War<\/a><\/h3>\n

There\u2019s a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn\u2019t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on the fate of the lira, and on the Pentagon\u2019s strategy with regard to embedding spec ops with the YPG.<\/p>\n

As a reminder, Turkey held elections back\u00a0in June<\/a>\u00a0and the outcome did not please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.<\/p>\n

AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament thanks in no small part to a relatively strong showing by the pro-Kurdish\u00a0HDP and that meant that Erdogan couldn\u2019t move forward with plans to consolidate his power by amending the constitution. Well, if you know anything about Erdogan, you know that he isn\u2019t exactly the type to take these kinds of things lying down, and so, he\u00a0decided to trade<\/a>\u00a0NATO access to Incirlik for Western acquiescence to a crackdown on the PKK.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Of course that\u2019s not how it was pitched to the media.<\/p>\n

The official line was that after\u00a0a suicide bombing in Suruc<\/a>\u00a0claimed by ISIS, Ankara decided it was time to go after Islamic State. Not to put too fine a point on it, but that\u2019s a joke. The PKK and many other observers have long contended that Turkey is complicit in allowing money, guns, and personnel to flow across the border into Syria so that ISIS can continue to destabilize the Assad regime which Ankara opposes. In other words, Erdogan has no interest whatsoever in fighting ISIS.\u00a0What he does have an interest in is starting a new war with the PKK in order to convince voters that the security situation in Turkey is such that only a dictator can get the situation under control – that\u2019s the whole gambit.<\/strong><\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War There\u2019s a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn\u2019t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4723,35,920,8289,446,447,553,3153,1908,776,818,10408,4318],"class_list":["post-14041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","tag-ankara","tag-assad","tag-civil-war","tag-hdp","tag-isis","tag-islamic-state","tag-nato","tag-pkk","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-syria","tag-turkey","tag-turkish-election","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14041"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14041\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14042,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14041\/revisions\/14042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}