{"id":13218,"date":"2015-10-10T07:33:33","date_gmt":"2015-10-10T12:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=13218"},"modified":"2015-10-10T07:33:33","modified_gmt":"2015-10-10T12:33:33","slug":"overcapacity-will-be-even-greater-than-in-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=13218","title":{"rendered":"Overcapacity \u201cwill be even greater than in 2009.\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2015\/10\/09\/capital-destruction-low-demand-overcapacity-sink-global-shipping-industry\/\" target=\"_blank\">Overcapacity \u201cwill be even greater than in 2009.\u201d<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>\u201cI would be open to the possibility\u201d of reducing the fed funds rate \u201ceven further\u201d and go negative, explained Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on Thursday. Some folks just don\u2019t get it.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the results of seven years of global QE and zero-interest-rate policies:<\/p>\n<p>Global demand is going from sluggish to even more sluggish. Emerging market countries are leading the way, it is said, and China is sneezing. Brazil and Russia have caught pneumonia. Japan is feeling the hangover from Abenomics. Even if there is some growth in Europe, it\u2019s small. And the US, \u201ccleanest dirty shirt\u201d as it\u2019s now called, is getting bogged down.<\/p>\n<p>And here\u2019s\u00a0what this is doing to\u00a0the shipping industry, the thermometer of global economic growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>On one side: lack of demand.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Due to the \u201crecent slowdown in world trade\u201d shipping consultancy\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drewry.co.uk\/news.php?id=408\" target=\"_blank\"><u>Drewry<\/u><\/a>\u00a0on Thursday slashed its forecast for container shipping growth, in terms of volume, to 2.2% for 2015 and lowered its estimates for future years.\u00a0BIMCO, the largest international shipping association representing shipowners, issued its own, even\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bimco.org\/en\/Reports\/Market_Analysis\/2015\/1008_ContainerSMOO2015-4.aspx\" target=\"_blank\"><u>gloomier report<\/u><\/a>\u00a0also on Thursday:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On the US West Coast, it\u2019s been slow all year, starting with the labor disputes that weren\u2019t resolved until mid-March. Since then, year-on-year growth in the second quarter was almost on par with 2014. But for the first half year alone, inbound loaded volumes dropped by 2% according to BIMCO data.<\/p>\n<p>On the Asia to Europe trades, volumes were down by 4.2% in the first half of the year as 7.4 million TEU (Twenty-foot container Equivalent Units) was transported. Northern European imports fell by 3.6%, while the East Med and Black Sea imports fell by 4.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Intra-Asia shipments remain a stronghold with ongoing positive growth around 4-5%, but the increased uncertainty surrounding the economic development in China adds doubt as to whether such a strong growth rate can be sustained for the full year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overcapacity \u201cwill be even greater than in 2009.\u201d \u201cI would be open to the possibility\u201d of reducing the fed funds rate \u201ceven further\u201d and go negative, explained Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on Thursday. Some folks just don\u2019t get it. Here are the results of seven years of global QE and zero-interest-rate policies: Global demand [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1784,9751,3761,2520,3500,9752,4856,805,4254,4255],"class_list":["post-13218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-exports","tag-global-qe","tag-global-trade","tag-imports","tag-overcapacity","tag-quntitative-easing","tag-shipping","tag-trade","tag-wolf-richter","tag-wolfstreet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13218"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13219,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218\/revisions\/13219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}