{"id":13214,"date":"2015-10-10T07:27:15","date_gmt":"2015-10-10T12:27:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=13214"},"modified":"2015-10-10T07:27:15","modified_gmt":"2015-10-10T12:27:15","slug":"how-big-an-oil-glut-is-there-really","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=13214","title":{"rendered":"How Big an Oil Glut is There Really?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"art-postheader\"><a title=\"Permanent Link to How Big an Oil Glut is There Really?\" href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/?p=40566\" rel=\"bookmark\">How Big an Oil Glut is There Really?<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Revisiting Crude Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Beginning in late August we have frequently discussed the possibility that a significant low in crude oil prices could be imminent\u00a0<em>in spite<\/em>\u00a0of the \u201cobvious\u201d lousy fundamentals. As blind luck would have it, the first of these articles (entitled\u00a0<em>\u201c<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/?p=39487\">Is Crude Oil Close to a Low?<\/a><em>\u201d)\u00a0<\/em>was posted exactly one trading day before the low to date was actually put in. Well, you know what they say about blind chickens :).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-40569\" src=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/10\/oil-glut-_freshidea.jpg\" alt=\"oil-glut-_freshidea\" width=\"500\" height=\"497\" \/>Image credit: freshidea \u2013 Fotolia<\/p>\n<p>Note here that we are not saying it was\u00a0<em>the<\/em>\u00a0low, although this cannot be ruled out either. It seems very likely though that it was at least a low of medium term significance.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/10\/WTIC-with-blind-chicken.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-40568\" src=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2015\/10\/WTIC-with-blind-chicken.png\" alt=\"WTIC-with blind chicken\" width=\"640\" height=\"481\" \/><\/a>From a technical perspective, the action in crude oil since late August is so far consistent with a medium term low. The recent advance looks actually somewhat healthier than the previous one, due to the lengthy consolidation after the initial strong rally leg \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n<p>To summarize our train of thought on the topic: We noted for one thing that commodities\u00a0<em>always<\/em>\u00a0bottom out at a point in time when their fundamentals still look atrocious. This is simply due to the fact that prices will at some point have declined sufficiently to discount all the (by then widely known) negative factors.<\/p>\n<p>For another thing, we have pointed out that the prices of commodities are ultimately not\u00a0<em>only<\/em>\u00a0determined by their specific supply-demand characteristics, but also by the\u00a0<em>money relation<\/em>. For instance, no-one would seriously expect crude oil prices to revert back to their level of 1933 ($ 0.67 annual average), no matter how bad crude oil\u2019s supply-demand fundamentals become. After all, since May of 1933, the Fed has managed to devalue the US dollar by nearly 95% (based on the government\u2019s own dubious CPI statistics).<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How Big an Oil Glut is There Really? Revisiting Crude Oil Beginning in late August we have frequently discussed the possibility that a significant low in crude oil prices could be imminent\u00a0in spite\u00a0of the \u201cobvious\u201d lousy fundamentals. As blind luck would have it, the first of these articles (entitled\u00a0\u201cIs Crude Oil Close to a Low?\u201d)\u00a0was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[5728,1851,184,588,3044,1775,6170],"class_list":["post-13214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-acting-man","tag-commodity-price-collapse","tag-crude-oil","tag-oil","tag-oil-glut","tag-oil-price-collapse","tag-pater-tenebrarum"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13214"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13215,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13214\/revisions\/13215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}