{"id":12939,"date":"2015-10-02T20:51:17","date_gmt":"2015-10-03T01:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12939"},"modified":"2015-10-02T20:51:17","modified_gmt":"2015-10-03T01:51:17","slug":"australia-is-going-down-under-the-bubble-is-about-to-burst-rbs-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12939","title":{"rendered":"Australia Is “Going Down Under”: “The Bubble Is About To Burst”, RBS Warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia Is “Going Down Under”: “The Bubble Is About To Burst”, RBS Warns<\/a><\/h3>\n

Thanks to a variety of idiosyncratic political crises and country-specific stumbling blocks, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and to a lesser extent Russia, have received the lion\u2019s share of coverage when it comes to assessing the EM damage wrought by the comically bad combination of slumping commodities prices, depressed Chinese demand, slowing global trade, and a \u201csurprise\u201d yuan devaluation.<\/p>\n

Put simply, the intractable political stalemate in Brazil, the civil war in Turkey, the 1MDB scandal in Malaysia (and the fact that the country was at the center of the 1998 meltdown), and the hit Russia has taken from depressed crude prices mean that if you want to pen a story about emerging market chaos, those four countries have plenty to offer in terms of going beyond the generic \u201cfalling commodities + a decelerating China = bad news for EM<\/em>\u201d narrative.<\/p>\n

But just because other vulnerable countries aren\u2019t beset with ethnic violence and\/or street protests doesn\u2019t mean they too aren\u2019t facing crises due to falling commodity prices and the slowdown of the Chinese growth machine.<\/p>\n

One such country is Australia, which in some respects is an emerging market dressed up like a developed economy, and which of course has suffered mightily from the commodities carnage and China\u2019s transition away from an investment-led growth model.<\/p>\n

Out with a fresh look at the risks facing Australia is RBS\u2019 Alberto Gallo. Notable excerpts are presented below.<\/p>\n

* \u00a0* \u00a0*<\/p>\n

From RBS<\/em><\/p>\n

Australia has become a commodity focused economy, with an increasing exposure to China. For the past decades, Australia has been buoyed by the rapid Chinese expansion, which outpaced the rest of the world. Australia benefited from China\u2019s strong demand for commodities given its investment-led growth model.\u00a0China is Australia\u2019s top export destination and 59% of those exports are in iron-ore.<\/strong>\u00a0But as China struggles to manage its ongoing credit crunch and continues its shift to consumption-led growth Australia\u2019s economy is likely to be hurt by lower demand for commodities.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia Is “Going Down Under”: “The Bubble Is About To Burst”, RBS Warns Thanks to a variety of idiosyncratic political crises and country-specific stumbling blocks, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and to a lesser extent Russia, have received the lion\u2019s share of coverage when it comes to assessing the EM damage wrought by the comically bad combination […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[41,9530,90,130,4333,406,9531,6911,818,824,1031,4318],"class_list":["post-12939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-australia","tag-australian-gdp","tag-brazil","tag-china","tag-crude","tag-housing-bubble","tag-housing-market-meltdown","tag-rbs","tag-turkey","tag-unemployment","tag-yuan","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12939"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12939\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12940,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12939\/revisions\/12940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}