{"id":12888,"date":"2015-10-02T06:07:38","date_gmt":"2015-10-02T11:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12888"},"modified":"2015-10-02T06:07:38","modified_gmt":"2015-10-02T11:07:38","slug":"australias-black-swan-moment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12888","title":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s \u201cBlack Swan Moment\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2015\/10\/01\/australias-black-swan-moment\/\" target=\"_blank\">Australia\u2019s \u201cBlack Swan Moment\u201d<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Wayne Swan,\u00a0\u00a0Treasurer of Australia from 2007 to 2013, Deputy Prime Minister and the Deputy Leader of the Labor Party from 2010 to 2013, who thought he saved the Australian economy but just delayed the inevitable, is now\u00a0blaming everyone but himself for the downward spiral:<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"image-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.australiaboomtobust.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Swan-cliff.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1421\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.australiaboomtobust.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Swan-cliff-1024x649.jpg\" alt=\"image source: Twitter\" width=\"1024\" height=\"649\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Image source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SwannyQLD\/status\/649067076334718976\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n<p>As I argued in my book\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com.au\/Australia-Australian-Credit-Property-Bubble-ebook\/dp\/B00JJ7UW0S\/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1410612321&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=australia+boom+to+bust\" target=\"_blank\"><u>Australia: Boom to Bust<\/u><\/a>, Australia will eventually see a significant economic recession in the not too distant future. And all the data points are clearly indicating my worst fears on where the Australian economy is headed. But we have to ask who is responsible for this economic downturn, and which policy makers helped line Australia up for the collapse in capital expenditure.<\/p>\n<p>Well, we can all try to blame Joe Hockey, Treasurer in the now defunct Abbott Government from September 2013 until September 2015,\u00a0<em>even though his approach was most definitely the icing on the cake,<\/em>\u00a0but unfortunately he was not Treasurer at the time Australia\u2019s political elite truly made what could be two of the greatest\u00a0<em>(yet laughable)<\/em>economic related mistakes in the history of Australian economics. And the blame lies with Wayne Swan, alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Treasury, and Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Mistake 1. Flawed Calculations<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><a class=\"image-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.australiaboomtobust.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/Crummy-Forecast.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-816\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.australiaboomtobust.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/Crummy-Forecast-1024x331.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"493\" height=\"159\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As per the chart above from the\u00a0<em>2012 \u2018Australia in the Asian Century White Paper,\u2019<\/em>\u00a0If there was ever such a stupid miscalculation by Australians, it was the forecast on how much iron ore Australia would need to extract from the ground to export to emerging nations such as China to fulfill their long term consumption requirements.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia\u2019s \u201cBlack Swan Moment\u201d Wayne Swan,\u00a0\u00a0Treasurer of Australia from 2007 to 2013, Deputy Prime Minister and the Deputy Leader of the Labor Party from 2010 to 2013, who thought he saved the Australian economy but just delayed the inevitable, is now\u00a0blaming everyone but himself for the downward spiral: Image source:\u00a0Twitter As I argued in my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[41,9483,1851,2041,9484,1264,3086,9482,4255],"class_list":["post-12888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-australia","tag-australia-boom-to-bust","tag-commodity-price-collapse","tag-joe-hockey","tag-political-elite","tag-recession","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-wayne-swan","tag-wolfstreet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12888"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12888\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12889,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12888\/revisions\/12889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}