{"id":12779,"date":"2015-09-29T08:25:44","date_gmt":"2015-09-29T13:25:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12779"},"modified":"2015-09-29T08:25:44","modified_gmt":"2015-09-29T13:25:44","slug":"india-surprises-51-out-of-52-experts-slashes-rates-more-than-expected-as-easing-bonanza-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12779","title":{"rendered":"India “Surprises” 51 Out Of 52 “Experts”, Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"

India “Surprises” 51 Out Of 52 “Experts”, Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues<\/a><\/h3>\n

Late last month,\u00a0we asked<\/a>\u00a0how long it would be before the RBI hit back in the wake of China\u2019s yuan deval.<\/p>\n

The Indian government\u2019s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian had just told ET Now television that India may need to “respond” to China\u2019s monetary policy stance, and also hinted at further export weakness. It wasn\u2019t hard to read between the lines: more shots were about to the be fired in the ongoing global currency wars.<\/p>\n

Reinforcing that contention was the following from Deutsche Bank:<\/p>\n

India\u2019s export sector continues to be under pressure, with merchandise exports contracting yet again in July by 10.3%yoy. The weakness in India\u2019s exports is striking (this is the eighth consecutive month of decline), not only in terms of past trend, but also from a cross country perspective. Indeed, India\u2019s exports performance has been the weakest in the region thus far in 2015.\u00a0<\/strong>In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (April-June\u201915), Indian exports have contracted by 17%yoy, one of the sharpest declines on record. The main reason for such a weak Indian export performance can be attributed to the sharp decline in oil exports (down 51%yoy between April-June\u201915), which constitute 18% of total exports.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Another factor that could likely explain the weak performance of exports is the probable overvaluation of the rupee. As per RBI\u2019s 36-country trade based real effective exchange rate, rupee remains overvalued at this juncture and this could be impacting exports to some extent, in our view.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Currency competitiveness is an important factor in influencing exports performance, but global demand is even more important, in our view, to support exports momentum. As can be seen from the chart [below], global demand remains soft at this stage which continues to be a key hurdle for exports momentum to gain traction.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

India “Surprises” 51 Out Of 52 “Experts”, Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues Late last month,\u00a0we asked\u00a0how long it would be before the RBI hit back in the wake of China\u2019s yuan deval. The Indian government\u2019s chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian had just told ET Now television that India may need to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,1099,1839,422,1400,1154,2151,534,3914,1031],"class_list":["post-12779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-currency-devaluation","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-india","tag-interest-rate-cut","tag-interest-rate-policy","tag-monetary-easing","tag-monetary-policy","tag-rbi","tag-yuan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12779"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12780,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12779\/revisions\/12780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}