{"id":12434,"date":"2015-09-20T06:51:52","date_gmt":"2015-09-20T11:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12434"},"modified":"2015-09-20T06:51:52","modified_gmt":"2015-09-20T11:51:52","slug":"demographics-and-major-financial-and-economic-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12434","title":{"rendered":"Demographics and Major Financial and Economic Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"

Demographics and Major Financial and Economic Trends<\/a><\/h3>\n

Demographics Driving Declines in Oil Consumption, Mounting Debt, & Central Bank Mismanagement<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sometimes, the simplest answer really is best.\u00a0 I contend the\u00a0primary and simplest\u00a0factor that need be watched to\u00a0gauge present\u00a0and future\u00a0economic activity\u00a0are the changes in core populations\u00a0(15-64 year old segment of the larger population)\u00a0for any nation or grouping.<\/p>\n

The core\u2019s declining growth and outright\u00a0shrinkage appear to be the trigger for declining\u00a0oil consumption*.\u00a0In turn, this slowing activity drives central bank\u00a0reactionary\u00a0interest rate\u00a0 cuts intended\u00a0to incentivize credit creation and\u00a0leverage\u2026all to get more (raise consumption) from less\u00a0(a declining population set).<\/p>\n

*Oil is generally irreplaceable by other sources and offers a good barometer of a nation\u2019s general economic activity.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"people\"Photo credit: fmh<\/p>\n

The chart below highlights the Bank of Japan\u2019s (BOJ)\u00a0interest rate reactions to the changing demographic nature of\u00a0the Japanese population.\u00a0 As Japan\u2019s core population began declining, the BOJ pushed rates lower to incentivize more credit (consumption) from a declining number of consumers.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Chart-1,Japan\u2019s core population vs. BoJ interest rates<\/p>\n

And the Fed, faced with similar\u00a0though less dire US demographic circumstances, emulated the BOJ\u2019s actions despite the BOJ\u2019s utter lack of success (below).<\/p>\n

\"Chart-2-rates<\/a>US interest rates, federal debt and core population trend \u2013 click to enlarge.<\/p>\n

Central banks around the world, at best,\u00a0are blinded by their formulas and hubris to the inevitable and certain demographic and population headwinds now very much upon us.\u00a0 These central banks are reacting to the least surprising, most reliable, and most important data in existence.\u00a0 Central banks, entrusted with\u00a0economic stewardship of nations,\u00a0have acted out of\u00a0greed or the stupidity only academics can talk themselves into.<\/p>\n

They have\u00a0sailed\u00a0downwind with all sheets available to make\u00a0the good times fantastically better,\u00a0but\u00a0left\u00a0nothing for the entirely predictable changing conditions we now face\u2026negative demographics and population\u00a0trends coupled with exhausted interest rate policy, over-indebtedness, and massive overcapacity for declining core\u00a0populations.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demographics and Major Financial and Economic Trends Demographics Driving Declines in Oil Consumption, Mounting Debt, & Central Bank Mismanagement Sometimes, the simplest answer really is best.\u00a0 I contend the\u00a0primary and simplest\u00a0factor that need be watched to\u00a0gauge present\u00a0and future\u00a0economic activity\u00a0are the changes in core populations\u00a0(15-64 year old segment of the larger population)\u00a0for any nation or grouping. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,124,151,162,195,9134,2889,5133,1154],"class_list":["post-12434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-central-banks","tag-commodities","tag-consumption","tag-debt","tag-declining-growth","tag-demographics","tag-economic-activity","tag-interest-rate-policy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12434"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12435,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12434\/revisions\/12435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}