{"id":12043,"date":"2015-09-09T08:31:09","date_gmt":"2015-09-09T13:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12043"},"modified":"2015-09-09T08:31:09","modified_gmt":"2015-09-09T13:31:09","slug":"the-endless-emergency-why-its-always-zirp-time-in-the-casino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12043","title":{"rendered":"The Endless Emergency\u2014\u2013Why It\u2019s Always ZIRP Time In The Casino"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Endless Emergency\u2014\u2013Why It\u2019s Always ZIRP Time In The Casino<\/a><\/h3>\n

Based on the headline from the\u00a0latest Jobs Friday report you wouldn\u2019t know that we are still mired in an\u00a0economic emergency\u2014\u2013one apparently so extreme\u00a0that it\u00a0might entail moving to the 81st straight\u00a0month of zero interest rates at next week\u2019s FOMC\u00a0meeting.\u00a0After all,\u00a0the\u00a0unemployment rate came in\u00a0smack-dab on the Fed\u2019s full-employment target\u00a0at 5.1%.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s not the half of it.\u00a0The August unemployment rate was also in the lowest quintile of modern history.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

That\u2019s right. There have been 535 monthly jobs\u00a0reports since 1970, yet in only 98 months or 18% of the time did the unemployment rate post at 5.1% or lower.<\/p>\n

\"Monthly<\/a><\/p>\n

In a word, the official unemployment rate is now\u00a0in what has been the macroeconomic end zone for the past 45 years. Might this suggest that the emergency is over and done?<\/p>\n

Not at all. The talking heads have been out in force insisting\u00a0on yet another deferral of \u201clift-off\u201d on the grounds that the economy is allegedly still fragile and that\u00a0the establishment survey number at 173,000 jobs came in on the light side.\u00a0Even the so-called centrists on the Fed\u2014\u2013Stanley Fischer and John\u00a0Williams\u2014\u2013have gone to\u00a0full-bore, open-mouth,\u00a0two-armed economist mode, jabbering incoherently while they\u00a0await more \u201cin-coming\u201d economic data.<\/p>\n

Self-evidently, the only \u201cincoming\u201d\u00a0information that can matter between now and next Wednesday is the stock market averages. To wit, if\u00a0last October\u2019s Bullard Rip\u00a0low on the S&P 500\u00a0holds at 1867, the FOMC will declare \u201cone and done\u201d, at least for the year; and if the market succumbs to another spot of vertigo, the Fed will concoct yet\u00a0another lame excuse for delay.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the Fed\u2019s true\u00a0Humphrey-Hawkins target is transparent. Namely, avoidance of\u00a0a \u201crisk-off\u201d hissy fit at all hazards.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Endless Emergency\u2014\u2013Why It\u2019s Always ZIRP Time In The Casino Based on the headline from the\u00a0latest Jobs Friday report you wouldn\u2019t know that we are still mired in an\u00a0economic emergency\u2014\u2013one apparently so extreme\u00a0that it\u00a0might entail moving to the 81st straight\u00a0month of zero interest rates at next week\u2019s FOMC\u00a0meeting.\u00a0After all,\u00a0the\u00a0unemployment rate came in\u00a0smack-dab on the Fed\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5979,2120,303,305,4512,8855,1154,459,1010,8854,824,1939],"class_list":["post-12043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-contracorner","tag-david-stockman","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fomc","tag-humphrey-hawkins-target","tag-interest-rate-policy","tag-john-williams","tag-shadowstats","tag-stanley-fischer","tag-unemployment","tag-zirp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12043"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12043\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12044,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12043\/revisions\/12044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}