{"id":12038,"date":"2015-09-09T07:40:23","date_gmt":"2015-09-09T12:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12038"},"modified":"2015-09-09T07:40:23","modified_gmt":"2015-09-09T12:40:23","slug":"buiter-only-helicopter-money-can-save-the-world-from-the-next-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=12038","title":{"rendered":"Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession<\/a><\/h3>\n

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It is to be expected that economists \u2013 even economists working for the same team \u2013 have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn\u2019t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in mid-air.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That rather hilarious characterization of the pseudoscience that is economics comes from the desk of Citi\u2019s Chief Economist Willem Buiter and it\u2019s apparently evidence that even if you don\u2019t think too much of his views on \u201cpet rocks\u201d (gold is a 6,000 year-old bubble) or on the efficacy and\/or utility of physical banknotes (ban cash), you\u2019d be hard pressed to disagree with him when it comes to critiquing his profession. Of course we don\u2019t want to give Buiter too much credit here because the quote shown above could simply be an attempt to stamp a caveat emptor on his latest prediction in case, like his predictions on when Greece would ultimately leave the euro, it turns out to be wrong.<\/p>\n

As tipped by\u00a0comments made<\/a>\u00a0at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York late last month, Buiter is out with a damning look at the global economy which he says will be drug kicking and screaming into a recession by the turmoil in China and the unfolding chaos in EM. Here\u2019s the call:<\/p>\n

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In the Global Economics team, however, we believe that a moderate global recession scenario has become the most likely global macroeconomic scenario for the next two years or so.\u00a0<\/strong>To clarify further, the most likely scenario, in our view, for the next few years is that global real GDP growth at market exchange rates will decline steadily from here on and reach or fall below 2%.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n

More specifically, Buiter says the odds of some kind of recession (either mild or terrifying) are 55%. Not 54%, or 56% mind you, but\u00a0exactly<\/em>\u00a055%, because as indicated by the introductory excerpt above, economic outcomes are very amenable to precise forecasting:<\/p>\n

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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession   It is to be expected that economists \u2013 even economists working for the same team \u2013 have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn\u2019t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1719,90,124,130,1601,284,285,366,1167,413,422,452,517,534,3926,1264,6876,4789,7485,1031,4318],"class_list":["post-12038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bond","tag-brazil","tag-central-banks","tag-china","tag-eastern-europe","tag-european-union","tag-eurozone","tag-global-economy","tag-greece","tag-hyperinflation","tag-india","tag-japan","tag-mexico","tag-monetary-policy","tag-monetization","tag-recession","tag-shadow-banking","tag-willem-buiter","tag-world-trade","tag-yuan","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12038"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12038\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12039,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12038\/revisions\/12039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}