{"id":10779,"date":"2015-08-05T19:30:47","date_gmt":"2015-08-06T00:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10779"},"modified":"2015-08-05T19:30:47","modified_gmt":"2015-08-06T00:30:47","slug":"scotiabank-warns-the-fed-is-cornered-and-there-are-visible-market-stresses-everywhere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10779","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank Warns “The Fed Is Cornered And There Are Visible Market Stresses Everywhere”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Scotiabank Warns “The Fed Is Cornered And There Are Visible Market Stresses Everywhere”<\/a><\/h3>\n

Part One, China<\/strong><\/p>\n

An economic slowdown is underway in China.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>This is reflected in the steep drop in the commodity complex and in the currencies of emerging market countries. Large imbalances are being worked off as Beijing attempts to shift the composition of its growth.\u00a0 Policy decision are not always economic.<\/p>\n

New sources of growth are being sought by Beijing as deleveraging occurs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Since officials care foremost about social stability, they try to preserve as many current jobs as possible during their attempt at economic transformation.\u00a0 During this period, banks might be averse to calling in loans.\u00a0 State owned enterprises (SOEs) are pressured to keep producing, so that workers can continue to receive a pay check.\u00a0 The result is over-production and downward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n

Part Two, The Seven Year Fed Subsidy<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Fed\u2019s zero interest rate policy has provided a subsidy to investors for the past 7 years.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>The lure of easy profits from cheap money was wildly attractive and readily accepted by investors. The Fed \u201cput\u201d gave investors great confidence that they could outperform their exceptionally low cost of capital.\u00a0 These implicit promises by central banks encouraged trillions of dollars into \u2018carry trades\u2019 and various forms of market speculation.<\/p>\n

Complacent investors maintain these trades, despite the Fed\u2019s warning of a looming reduction in the subsidy, and despite a balance sheet expected to shrink in 2016.\u00a0\u00a0It has been a risk-chasing \u2018game of chicken\u2019 that is coming to an end.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Changing conditions have skewed risk\/reward to the downside.\u00a0\u00a0This is particularly true because financial assets prices are exceptionally expensive.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Maybe investors do not believe \u2018lift-off\u2019 looms, because the Fed has changed its guidance so many times.\u00a0 Or maybe, investors are interpreting plummeting commodity prices and the steep fall in global trade as warning signs that global growth and inflation are under pressure. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Scotiabank Warns “The Fed Is Cornered And There Are Visible Market Stresses Everywhere” Part One, China An economic slowdown is underway in China.\u00a0\u00a0This is reflected in the steep drop in the commodity complex and in the currencies of emerging market countries. Large imbalances are being worked off as Beijing attempts to shift the composition of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2045,130,6941,303,7890,690,7889,1940,4318,1939],"class_list":["post-10779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-beijing","tag-china","tag-chinese-stock-market","tag-fed","tag-market-stress","tag-risk","tag-scotiabank","tag-zero-interest-rate-policy","tag-zerohedge","tag-zirp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10779"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10780,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10779\/revisions\/10780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}