{"id":10504,"date":"2015-07-29T06:51:46","date_gmt":"2015-07-29T11:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10504"},"modified":"2015-07-29T06:51:46","modified_gmt":"2015-07-29T11:51:46","slug":"world-natural-gas-shock-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10504","title":{"rendered":"World Natural Gas Shock Model"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/world-natural-gas-shock-model\/\" target=\"_blank\">World Natural Gas Shock Model<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">The post that follows relies heavily on the work of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/theoilconundrum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Paul Pukite\u00a0<\/a>(aka Webhubbletelescope),\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/aspofrance.viabloga.com\/texts\/documents\" target=\"_blank\">Jean Laherrere<\/a>, and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theoildrum.com\/node\/6782\" target=\"_blank\">Steve Mohr<\/a>. Any mistakes are my responsibility.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>For World Natural Gas URR Steve Mohr estimates 3 cases, with case 2 being his best estimate.<\/p>\n<p>Case 1 URR= 14,000 TCF (trillion cubic feet)<br \/>\nCase 2 URR= 18,000 TCF<br \/>\nCase 3 URR= 27,000 TCF<\/p>\n<p>Jean Laherrere\u2019s most recent World natural gas URR estimate is close to Steve Mohr\u2019s Case 1 at 13,000 TCF.<\/p>\n<p>A Hubbert Linearization(HL) of World Conventional Natural Gas from 1999 to 2014 suggests a URR of 11,000 TCF, an HL from 1982-1998 points to a URR of 6000 TCF for conventional natural gas.<\/p>\n<p>Note that \u201cConventional\u201d natural gas subtracts US shale gas and US coal bed methane (CBM) from gross output minus reinjected gas for the World.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-8776\"><\/span>World Conventional Natural Gas HL (shale gas and CBM output from US deducted)<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog150728a.png\" alt=\"WorldshockNatgas\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Currently World cumulative conventional natural gas output (using gross minus reinjected gas following Jean Laherrere\u2019s example) is 4200 TCF, about 38% of the URR.<\/p>\n<p>When shale gas and coalbed methane gas output in the US are added to World Natural Gas, the HL points to a URR of 20,000 TCF, this implies that shale gas, tight gas and CBM might have a combined URR of as much as 9000 TCF. This matches well with the EIA\u2019s 7000 TCF TRR estimate for shale gas and Steve Mohr\u2019s 2500 TCF estimate for CBM.<\/p>\n<p>I suspect the combined shale gas and CBM numbers will be lower(4000 TCF), but that conventional gas will be more than 11,000 TCF (about 15,000 TCF) .<\/p>\n<p>World Natural Gas HL below (includes all types of natural gas)<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World Natural Gas Shock Model The post that follows relies heavily on the work of\u00a0Paul Pukite\u00a0(aka Webhubbletelescope),\u00a0Jean Laherrere, and\u00a0Steve Mohr. Any mistakes are my responsibility. For World Natural Gas URR Steve Mohr estimates 3 cases, with case 2 being his best estimate. Case 1 URR= 14,000 TCF (trillion cubic feet) Case 2 URR= 18,000 TCF [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[7630,554,6245],"class_list":["post-10504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-gas-shock-model","tag-natural-gas","tag-peak-oil-barrel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10504"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10504\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10505,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10504\/revisions\/10505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}