{"id":10366,"date":"2015-07-25T06:39:31","date_gmt":"2015-07-25T11:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10366"},"modified":"2015-07-25T06:39:31","modified_gmt":"2015-07-25T11:39:31","slug":"aussie-dollar-tests-long-term-trendline-as-china-contagion-spreads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=10366","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads<\/a><\/h3>\n

Last week, we asked\u00a0“Is Australia the next Greece?”<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0It appears, judging bu the collapse in the Aussie Dollar, that some – if not all – are starting to believe it’s possible after\u00a0last night’s 15-month low in China Manufacturing PMI<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em>As UBS previously noted,\u00a0China’s real GDP growth cycles have become an increasingly important driver of Australia’s nominal GDP growth this last decade.\u00a0<\/strong>With iron ore and coal prices plumbing new record lows, a Chinese (real) economy firing on perhaps 1 cyclinder, and equity investors reeling from China’s collapse; perhaps the situation facing Australia is more like Greece than many want to admit.<\/p>\n

Australian consumers are more worried about the medium term outlook than at the peak of the financial crisis<\/strong>, and rightfully so…<\/p>\n

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As China plumbs new depths in manufacturing, just piling on Aussie’s woes…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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The Dollar is rising this morning but all eyes are on AUD as it tests a very long-term trendline…<\/p>\n

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h\/t @RaoulGMI<\/em><\/p>\n

*\u00a0 *\u00a0 *<\/p>\n

As The Telegraph previously concluded,<\/em><\/a>\u00a0rather ominously,<\/p>\n

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The problem is that Australia, after decades of effort to diversify, is looking ever more like a petrodollar economy of the Middle East, but without the vast horde of foreign currency reserves to fall back on when commodity prices fall.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Instead,\u00a0Australians must borrow to maintain the standards of living that the country has become accustomed to, which even some Greeks will admit is unsustainable.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Charts: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads Last week, we asked\u00a0“Is Australia the next Greece?”\u00a0It appears, judging bu the collapse in the Aussie Dollar, that some – if not all – are starting to believe it’s possible after\u00a0last night’s 15-month low in China Manufacturing PMI.\u00a0As UBS previously noted,\u00a0China’s real GDP growth cycles have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7522,7524,41,130,353,1167,522,7523,4318],"class_list":["post-10366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-aussie","tag-austrailian-dollar","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-gdp","tag-greece","tag-middle-east","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10366"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10367,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10366\/revisions\/10367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}