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It Gets Ugly in Catalonia

It Gets Ugly in Catalonia

Spain’s “ships of repression” are coming to help out. 

Madrid’s crackdown on Catalonia is already having one major consequence, presumably unintended: many Catalans who were until recently staunchly opposed to the idea of national independence are now reconsidering their options.

A case in point: At last night’s demonstration, spread across multiple locations in Barcelona, were two friends of mine, one who is fanatically apolitical and the other who is a strong Catalan nationalist but who believes that independence would be a political and financial disaster for the region. It was their first ever political demonstration. If there is a vote on Oct-1, they will probably vote to secede.

The middle ground they and hundreds of thousands of others once occupied was obliterated yesterday when a judge in Barcelona ordered Spain’s militarized police force, the Civil Guard, to round up over a dozen Catalan officials in dawn raids. Many of them now face crushing daily fines of up to €12,000.

The Civil Guard also staged raids on key administrative buildings in Barcelona. The sight of balaclava-clad officers of the Civil Guard, one of the most potent symbols of the not-yet forgotten Franco dictatorship, crossing the threshold of the seats of Catalonia’s (very limited) power and arresting local officials, was too much for the local population to bear.

Within minutes almost all of the buildings were surrounded by crowds of flag-draped pro-independence protesters. The focal point of the day’s demonstrations was the Economic Council of Catalonia, whose second-in-command and technical coordinator of the referendum, Josep Maria Jové,was among those detained. He has now been charged with sedition and could face between 10-15 years in prison. Before that, he faces fines of €12,000 a day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain’s New Big Bubble Begins to Wobble

Spain’s New Big Bubble Begins to Wobble

Tourism is now bigger than construction was during the real estate bubble.

Since hitting rock bottom in 2013, Spain has been one of the biggest engines of economic growth in Europe, expanding at around 3% per year. But according to a report by the Bank of Spain, most of the factors behind this growth — such as cheaper global oil prices, the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy, and the subsequent decline in value of the Euro — are externally driven and transitory in nature.

This is particularly true for arguably the biggest driver of Spain’s economic recovery, its unprecedented tourism boom, which some local economists are finally beginning to call a bubble.

In large part the boom/bubble is a result of the recent surge in geopolitical risks affecting rival tourist destinations like Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and, in smaller measure, France, which helped boost the number of foreign visitors to Spain in 2016 to a historic record of 75.3 million people — an 11.8% increase on 2015.

Based on first-half figures for this year, the trend is set to continue, at least for a little while longer. Between January and June 2017 36.3 million foreign visitors came to Spain — an increase of 11.6% on the same period of 2016. But if recent developments are any indication, this year’s surge in visitors could well represent Spain’s tourist boom’s final swansong.

Rising “Tourism-phobia.” After years of growing public opposition to the unrestrained growth of the Barcelona’s tourist industry, the city has witnessed a rash of coordinated attacks against tourist targets led by Arran, the youth wing of the radical separatist CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy) party. Arran’s highly publicized actions have spawned a flurry of copycat attacks in places like Palma de Mallorca, San Sebastian and most recently Tenerife.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Volatility in Housing: What Surges & Crashes the Most?

Volatility in Housing: What Surges & Crashes the Most?

It depends on the value of the home.

What happens to home prices during the current housing boom and the next housing bust depends to some degree on whether the home is relatively “affordable” — whatever that means at today’s prices — or more expensive.

This is an important data point in the consideration for lenders that have to worry about their collateral value and for residential property investors and for homeowners who might want to get a foretaste of what is next.

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index offers an index based on three tiers of prices — low tier, middle tier, and high tier. Like small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks, the less expensive homes show much more price movements up anddown and are thus far more volatile during booms and busts than their more expensive counterparts.

The Tiered Home Price Index (TPI) comprises 16 metro areas: Boston, New York City, Washington DC, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco (five-county Bay Area), Miami, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, and Tampa.

Prices in the low tier rose 10.8% year-over-year, according to the TPI, published in August. For mid-tier homes, the index rose 7.5%. And for expensive homes prices rose 4.8%.

That principle has been true for the past 17 years of the index, covering two housing booms and one housing bust so far. The chart below shows how prices of homes in the low tier (yellow line) rise much faster than higher priced homes, but during the bust, they also plunge much faster and bottom out a lot lower (chart via  John Burns Real Estate Consulting):

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Many European Banks Would Collapse Without Regulators’ Help: Fitch

Many European Banks Would Collapse Without Regulators’ Help: Fitch

Only two things keep these banks alive: “a State willing to support them and a regulator that does not declare them insolvent.”

Dozens of Greek, Italian, Spanish and even German lenders have volumes of troubled assets higher or similar to that of Spain’s fallen lender Banco Popular. They, too, are at risk of insolvency. This stark observation came from Bridget Gandy, director of financial institutions for Fitch Ratings, who spoke at a conference in London on Thursday.

The troubled banks include:

  • Greece’s HB, Piraeus, NBG, Eurobank and Alpha;
  • Italy’s Monte dei Pachi di Siena (which is in the process of being rescued with state funds), Carige (9th largest bank, now under ECB orders to raise capital or else), CreVal, and the two collapsed banks, Veneto and Vicenza (whose senior bondholders were bailed out last weekend);
  • Germany’s Bremer Landesbank (which just cancel interest payments on its CoCo bonds) and shipping lender HSH Nordbank.
  • Spain’s Liberbank and majority state-owned BMN and Bankia, which are completing a merger after private-sector institutions refused to buy BMN. Now, the problems on BMN’s balance sheet belong to Bankia, which already has its own set of issues, Gandy said.

That many of Europe’s banks are teetering on the brink of insolvency is not exactly new news. Most of the problems that caused the financial crisis have not been resolved. As the financial journalist and former investment banker Nomi Prins said in a 2015 interview with Dutch media group VPRO, “in Europe there still exist massive amounts of trades (on banks’ balance sheets) that are underwater and going wrong every day.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Two Italian Zombie Banks Toppled Friday Night

Two Italian Zombie Banks Toppled Friday Night

ECB shuts down Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza.

When banks fail and regulators decide to liquidate them, it happens on Friday evening so that there is a weekend to clean up the mess. And this is what happened in Italy – with two banks!

It’s over for the two banks that have been prominent zombies in the Italian banking crisis: Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza, in northeastern Italy.

The banks have combined assets of €60 billion, a good part of which are toxic and no one wanted to touch them. They already received a bailout but more would have been required, and given the uncertainty and the messiness of their books, nothing was forthcoming, and the ECB which regulates them lost its patience.

In a tersely worded statement, the ECB’s office of Banking Supervision ordered the banks to be wound up because they “were failing or likely to fail as the two banks repeatedly breached supervisory capital requirements.”

“Failing or likely to fail” is the key phrase that banking supervisors use for banks that “should be put in resolution or wound up under normal insolvency proceedings,” the statement said. This is the first Italian bank liquidation under Europe’s new Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation. The ECB explained:

The ECB had given the banks time to present capital plans, but the banks had been unable to offer credible solutions going forward.

Consequently, the ECB deemed that both banks were failing or likely to fail and duly informed the Single Resolution Board (SRB), which concluded that the conditions for a resolution action in relation to the two banks had not been met. The banks will be wound up under Italian insolvency procedures.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are 100-Year Mortgages Next? Effects of Negative Real Interest Rates on Nordic Housing Bubble

Are 100-Year Mortgages Next? Effects of Negative Real Interest Rates on Nordic Housing Bubble

Wage Growth vs. Housing Price Growth

By Nick Kamran, an American living in Oslo, Letters from Norway:

Historically, central banks throughout Europe had one mandate: price stability. They did not worry about employment or economic growth, only currency integrity. Setting interest rates to contain inflation ensured that a Krone or a Euro would purchase tomorrow what it could today. Nevertheless, since the ebbing of the 2008 financial crisis, The ECB, of which Finland is a member, officially added full employment and economic growth to their mandate. The NorwegianSwedish, and Danish Central Bank’s followed suit, stating that they would consider “other factors” than inflation when basing an interest rate decision.

Hence, instead of remaining impartial — leaving it to lawmakers, markets, and the public to deal with the prevailing interest rate — the central banks became involved in policy making. Adding employment and economic growth to their mandate equates to the National Institute of Standards changing the definition of the meter to help an engineering firm, working on a major bridge project, meet budgetary and timeline constraints. In addition to creating a dilemma, the additional mandates made central banks appear politically biased.

The Conundrum

In an attempt to balance, what central bankers perceive as two opposing forces, inflation and unemployment, they chose economic stability over maintaining price stability. The other option, raising rates would have led to greater short-term unemployment. The central banks pushed benchmark rates all the way down, nearing zero in Norway (.5% – Key Policy Rate ) and Denmark (.05% – Discount Rate), hitting it in Finland (ECB at 0% – Refi Rate) and going negative in Sweden (-.5% – Repo Rate).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Time We Talked About Our Owners

It’s Time We Talked About Our Owners

How vast asset managers impact “our increasingly cartelized economy.”

The world’s biggest asset manager, BlackRock, was splashed across the front pages of the Spanish financial news yesterday. The firm had just raised raised its stake in Spain’s telecoms giant Telefónica to 336 million shares — the equivalent of 6.7% of Telefónica’s total capital, with a market value of just under €3 billion.

In the short space of five months BlackRock has almost doubled its holdings and is now the largest owner of Telefónica stock, ahead of Spain’s second biggest bank, BBVA, which holds 6% of the shares. The asset manager has also expanded its participation in Telefónica’s international subsidiaries, raising its holdings in Telefónica Deutschland to 0.76% and Telefónica Brasil to almost 2%, making it the firm’s biggest institutional shareholder.

BlackRock is the largest institutional shareholder of Telefónica’s two main market rivals in Spain, holding 7.3% of Vodafone and 1.96% of part state-owned Orange. It’s also the second largest investor in British Telecom, after Deutsche Telekom, with a 7.84% stake. In the U.S. market BlackRock has the third largest position in Verizon, with 6.17% of the capital, and the second largest position in AT&T, with 5.84%.

A Vast, Sprawling Empire

The US fund manager has built up such a vast, sprawling financial empire since its creation 29 years ago that it has even begun to draw unwanted attention from the academic world. Two blockbuster studies – one by Einer Elhauge of Harvard Law School and the other by Martin C. Schmalz of Stephen M. Ross School of Business and José Azar and Isabel Tecu of Charles River Associates – have confirmed that BlackRock and some other big funds have acquired such large shareholdings throughout the U.S. and global economy that they cause the companies they jointly own to compete less vigorously with one another.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why I Think there Will Be a “Dollar Panic”

Why I Think there Will Be a “Dollar Panic”

Please remember this warning when you go to the ATM to get cash — and there is none.

While we were thinking about what was really going on with today’s strange new money system, a startling thought occurred to us. Our financial system could take a surprising and catastrophic twist that almost nobody imagines, let alone anticipates.

Do you remember when a lethal tsunami hit the beaches of Southeast Asia, killing thousands of people and causing billions of dollars of damage? Well, just before the 80-foot wall of water slammed into the coast an odd thing happened: The water disappeared.

The tide went out farther than anyone had ever seen before. Local fishermen headed for high ground immediately. They knew what it meant. But the tourists went out onto the beach looking for shells!

The same thing could happen to the money supply…

There’s Not Enough Physical Money

Here’s how… and why:

It’s almost seems impossible. Hard to imagine. Difficult to understand. But if you look at M2 money supply – which measures coins and notes in circulation as well as bank deposits and money market accounts – America’s money stock amounted to $12.6 trillion as of last month.

But there was just $1.4 trillion of physical currency in circulation – about only half of which is in the US. (Nobody knows for sure.)

What we use as money today is mostly credit. It exists as zeros and ones in electronic bank accounts. We never see it. Touch it. Feel it. Count it out. Or lose it behind seat cushions.

Banks profit – handsomely – by creating this credit. And as long as banks have sufficient capital, they are happy to create as much credit as we are willing to pay for. After all, it costs the banks almost nothing to create new credit. That’s why we have so much of it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

With Impeccable Timing, ‘Economic Miracle’ in Spain Unravels

With Impeccable Timing, ‘Economic Miracle’ in Spain Unravels

The European Union on the verge.

Since the granddaddy of all housing bubbles popped in Spain between 2008 and 2009, unleashing one of the deepest recessions in living memory, the nation’s public debt has more than doubled, from just over 40% of GDP to almost exactly 100% today. Last year, despite the fact that Spain grew faster than almost any other European economy, the government managed to rack up a deficit of 5.2%, one full percentage point above the target that it had set itself a year earlier and over three percentage points above the Eurozone average.

It’s the third-highest deficit-to-GDP ratio in the Eurozone after Greece and Portugal. That’s some claim for Europe’s supposed economic success story.

This is the eighth consecutive year that Spain has overshot its fiscal target. Originally, the Spanish government was supposed to get its deficit back below the EU’s sacred limit of 3% of GDP by 2013. When it became clear during the darkest days of the crisis that it would be impossible, the deadline was extended by a year. A year later, Madrid had made so little progress that it got a further two-year extension, to 2016.

But still there’s no sign of progress. None of which should come as a surprise. As WOLF STREET warned in October, it was plain as day that the Spanish government would fail to rein in its spending during the run-up to a tightly fought general election. Brussels was completely aware of this fact and did nothing to address it, for obvious reasons: political expedience.

Brussels along with Spain’s big banks, corporate giants, and the Troika wanted the conservative Rajoy government to win December’s do-or-die general elections. They’d do “whatever it takes” to keep the narrative intact that the Spanish economy has never been better.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Are We Prepared to Impose Temporary Debt Standstills?”

“Are We Prepared to Impose Temporary Debt Standstills?”

In a remarkable turnaround, foreign investors are estimated to have pumped over $35 billion into emerging market (EM) stocks and bonds in March, the highest monthly inflow in nearly two years, according to the Institute of International Finance. One of the biggest beneficiaries is Latin America, which for months had been shunned by investors. The region took in $13.4 billion, with equities in even crisis-hit Brazil receiving over $2 billion.

But is this the beginning of an enduring rally or is this “hot money,” which can change direction without notice, about to get cold feet again?

“Over the past 15 years there has been a very large increase in the presence of foreigners in domestic equity, bond and deposit markets of developing countries,” says Dr. Yilmaz Akyuz, the chief economist of the South Centre, an intergovernmental organization of developing and emerging economies representing 52 countries, including four of the BRICS nations (Russia excluded). Akyuz was speaking at a briefing of delegates at the UN’s Geneva headquarters.

This influx of foreign funds may seem like a blessing until the tide suddenly turns. Then it becomes a curse.

“Your reserves may be adequate to service your short-term debt but if there is a massive exit from domestic bond, equity, and deposit markets then your reserves will not be enough,” Akyuz warns. There’s a simple reason for this: a large chunk of emerging markets’ reserves is derived from the initial entry of hot money into their economy.

Last year, investors pulled $6 billion out of emerging market funds managed by Pimco, according to the New York Times. A debt fund run by MFS investment management in Boston lost $1.4 billion, and Trust Company of the West in Los Angeles suffered outflows of $1.8 billion from its $2.6 billion bond offering last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Emerging Market Meltdown Sinks Spain’s Biggest Companies

Emerging Market Meltdown Sinks Spain’s Biggest Companies

After years of uninterrupted domination, the old guard at Spain’s Ibex 35 stock index – two mega-banks Banco Santander and BBVA, oil giant Repsol, telecommunications behemoth Telefonica, and utility Iberdrola – is beginning to lose it.

Today the big-five’s combined capitalization represents 45% of the ibex 35’s total capitalization. This may seem like a ridiculously high percentage for five companies compared to most other stock markets, but it is actually its lowest share in decades. Over the last 15 years, the big five’s combined share has averaged 60% and at times even reached as high as 65%.

There are many reasons for this change, including the rise of relative newcomers. Of particular note is the spectacular growth of Spain’s clothing giant Inditex, whose brands include the world’s biggest fashion retailer, Zara, and whose owner, Amancio Ortega, is now the world’s second richest man. Inditex has a market capitalization of €92.7 billion, compared to Santander’s €59.5 billion!

The other main reason for the big five’s shrinking market share is their sinking share prices. Telefonicá and BBVA’s shares are at their lowest point since 2013. Santander’s shares, which have suffered the debilitating effects of countless capital expansions, haven’t been this low since 2012. As for Repsol, the last time its shares plumbed their current depths was in the 1990s. The only member of the big five to escape this rout is Iberdrola.

One thing that all of these companies have in common is their massive exposure to emerging markets — in particular Latin America, whose commodity-rich economies are now suffering the fallout from dwindling Chinese demand. In the aftermath of Spain’s real estate collapse, when opportunities at home were almost non-existent, Latin America’s fast-growing economies were a godsend to many of Spain’s biggest companies. But they are fast becoming a curse.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Pretty Soon We Have to Start Labeling this a Depression”: Goldman Sachs on Brazil

“Pretty Soon We Have to Start Labeling this a Depression”: Goldman Sachs on Brazil

Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, now the 8th largest in the world, down from 6th place during the glorious BRICs days of 2011, is sinking deeper and deeper into trouble.

An epic corruption and kickback scandal surrounding state-run oil company Petrobras is spreading up the government pyramid to the highest levels – a week ago, the government’s Senate leader was arrested for allegedly trying to meddle in the investigations. As the scandal is metastasizing, political decision-making is gridlocked, and the confidence of consumers and businesses has been demolished.

The budget deficit is ballooning as the economy is spiraling down. On Monday, the government imposed a partial shutdown and froze discretionary spending. Standard & Poor’s has slashed Brazil to junk, citing government finances, the political mess, and the deepening economic nightmare. Moody’s and Fitch still rate it just above junk, with their downgrade fingers itching to pull the trigger.

All this comes at the worst possible moment for the economy. GDP fell 1.7% in the third quarter, the national statistics institute (IBGE) announced today. Year over year, GDP plunged 4.5%, the sixth contraction in a row, and the worst since the beginning of modern records in 1996.

“There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters,” Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo, told Bloomberg. “The situation is really, really bad,” he said, likening the GDP report to “an obituary.”

This is what Brazil’s annualized GDP growth rates look like for the past 12 quarters:

Brazil-GDP-growth-annualized

The economy was dragged down at all corners. Manufacturing fell 3.1%. Business investment dropped 4%, down for the ninth quarter in a row. But this year, even consumer spending is plunging, whacked by rising unemployment – now at 8.9%, according to the official unemployment rate – and soaring inflation, now over 10%, which is sapping the purchasing power of the lucky ones that still have jobs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is the Troika About to Lose Control of South-Western Europe?

Is the Troika About to Lose Control of South-Western Europe?

The Price of “Austerity”

Passos Coelho, who was until Tuesday Prime Minister of Portugal, knew “what to do.” After signing along the dotted line for a €78 billion bailout he embraced the Troika’s austerity agenda with abandon. Public spending was slashed, taxes were hiked, wages were cut, and a whole gamut of public assets and services were privatized.

As they say in Brussels these days, no pain, no gain. After four years of excruciating belt-tightening, Portugal was apparently back on the mend, despite its public debt almost doubling since 2008. Its economy had been through the grinder but it had come out the other end in much leaner shape. The public deficit had shrunk from 11% in 2011 to 3% today.

Unemployment had also fallen, and kept falling month after month, to the point where it was getting monotonous. Until two months ago, that is, when it shot back up over 14%. Then came the bomb shell: the country’s Ministry of Statistics announced in a rare moment of candor that unemployment, in an “extended sense,” was actually around 22%. As Deutsche Welle reports, the Portuguese government had been doctoring the figures to keep the European institutions (i.e. the Troika) happy:

European politicians prefer lower unemployment figures rather than higher ones, and as a consequence, there are now unemployment figures in “narrower” and “extended” senses. Mostly, the headline figures reported are the lower, “narrower” ones.

Flimsy Façade

In other words, in the real world Portugal has almost identical depression-era levels of unemployment as Spain. Its government is just more skilled at masking the grimness of its economic reality.

However, hiding a decidedly grim reality with a flimsy façade of doctored numbers may work on international investors and rating agencies – at least for a while – but it doesn’t work on those who have to live in that grim reality. And at election time that can be a serious setback.

When Coelho’s governing coalition received only 38% of the vote in last month’s elections, the game was as good as up, especially when it became clear that three parties on the left — the so-called “triple left” — had won an absolute majority and seemed willing to form a coalition.

Saudi, US Oil Inventories Hit Record High as Demand Fizzles

Saudi, US Oil Inventories Hit Record High as Demand Fizzles

In the US, oil storage is seasonal. A big buildup starting late fall gets Americans and their favorite gas or diesel sipping or guzzling toys or clunkers through “driving season” – late spring and summer – when somehow everyone has to drive somewhere. After driving season, petroleum stocks fall. This pattern has played out this year as well, but with a difference.

Last week, the EIA reported that crude oil stocks rose 7.6 million barrels to 468.6 million barrels, the highest for this time of the year since records have been kept. Crude oil stocks are now 98 million barrels higher than they were last year at this time, when they were already bouncing into the upper end of the 5-year range.

This chart from the EIA shows the out-of-whack relationship between the five-year range (gray area) and the weekly buildup (blue line) this time around:

US-crude-oil-stocks_2015-10-15

Instead of getting better somehow, this situation simply got worse over driving season. At the peak of the buildup this year, crude oil stocks were 22.5% higher than a year earlier. Now they’re 26.4% higher than they were at this time last year.

If the inventory buildup this fall, winter, and spring continues in this manner from today’s much higher starting point, we can look forward to a fiasco on the storage front – and on the pricing front. Because at this rate, by April, we’ll be having oil coming out of our ears!

But this is a global issue for producers (or conversely, an opportunity for oil consumers). Here’s Saudi Arabia, which has been pumping oil at record levels to maintain its market share against Russia and the boys from the oil patch in the US and Canada: its inventories are ballooning too.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Macau’s Economy Blows Up

Macau’s Economy Blows Up

China’s crackdown on corruption, or at least the ostentatious display of the spoils of corruption, and its selective hunt for corrupt officials, which to some observers resembles a political purge, may or may not tamp down on actual corruption, which is what greases the wheels in the Chinese economy. But it’s certainly doing a number on Macau.

Macau is the only place in China where Chinese can legally gamble away their wealth without having to resort to the stock market or other schemes. It’s also a convenient place where they can circumvent China’s currency controls to siphon money out of China and send it to “safe havens,” such as over-priced homes in the most expensive trophy cities in the US near the peak of US Housing Bubble 2.

Until February 2014, Macau was on an awesome ride that had kicked off in 2001, when it permitted foreign casino operators to build gambling palaces. In 2002, Macau became the number one gambling destination in the world. Even during the Financial-Crisis, Macau’s gaming revenues rose nearly 10%. These endlessly soaring revenues were a thermometer into China’s economic boom.

So in its crackdown on corruption, China is hitting Macau in both departments: scaring high-rollers away and monkey-wrenching its capital-controls evasion machinery. And this year, Macau has taken a third blow: the deteriorating economy in mainland China.

As a result, Macau’s real GDP plunged 24.5% in the first quarter year-over-year and then went ahead and plunged an even more terrible 26.4% in the second quarter, to 77.5 billion Macau patacas ($9.7 billion), the lowest level since early 2011.

The Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) in its report today blamed “exports of gaming services,” as it calls gambling revenues that had plunged 40.5% year over year, and “exports of other tourism services,” which had plunged 21.5%. “Total exports of services” crashed by 35.9%.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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