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Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report penned a very informative note last month that outlined, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global energy market.

We were reminded of MacDonald’s note because the global benchmark Brent is currently being subjected to a major repricing event of geopolitical risk as Israel makes preparations for a potential retaliation by Tehran after a precision strike in Syria earlier this week killed top Iranian commanders.

“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come, but it doesn’t know when and where and what, and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, told Bloomberg.

On Thursday, UBS desk trader Alexander Gray outlined several bullish factors into Brent’s surge that has the benchmark around $91/bbl handle:

Rally / buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close – suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be weighted in the index
Geopolitics – reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.
Bullish consensus and flow – a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about upside risk toward the $95-100 range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed toward upside buying in the options space
Technicals – Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment..

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

April 5, 2024

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

Update(1831ET): With Israel’s embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response – with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.

Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure “a strong response” from Israel.

Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would “take the current conflict to another level” — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:

Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn’t been an attack from Iranian soil.
A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East.

Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel’s forces have already been engaged with Iran “both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively.”

A statement issued by the prime minister’s office laid out: “We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him.” The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying “President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Dodging The Gator – What Can Be Done?

April 4, 2024

Dodging The Gator – What Can Be Done?

Humanity is in overshoot, and a major correction is already underway, something, which will only accelerate even further. A runaway energy crisis, together with resource depletion, climate change and ecosystems collapse will upend centuries of growth and prosperity. But what does that mean on an individual level? Is there any way to course correct? If not, what are the possible ways of adaption?

The world economy faces a runaway energy crisis, not seen by most commentators. The energy needed to extract the next unit of both oil and minerals increases exponentially due to rich depleted deposits being replaced with ever poorer quality ones. Since energy is the economy, not money, an exponential rise in this area will eventually make further expansion impossible, and lead to a relentless decline. Something, which cannot be stopped, nor financed without bankrupting the economy… In the meantime, both investors and politicians act as if energy were just a cost item, and its supply could expand without any hurdles. What could possibly go wrong?

We are clearly approaching a civilizational tipping point, and there is nothing anyone in power can do about this. The entire process is driven by physics and geology, not wishful thinking and clever humans supposedly inventing their way out if this mess. However, if you were following the logic of how we got here so far, I don’t think it is realistic to say that the passing of this inflection point will suddenly upend civilization, and push everyone, everywhere back into the stone age in a matter of years. Instead, we are about to walk down a long winding road fraught with all sorts of perils, and have to prepare ourselves accordingly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

April 4, 2024

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

At this point Israel’s ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump’s Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.

Further, as Israeli media reports: “The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza.” Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the “heightened Iranian response threat” in wake of Monday’s Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October….

… and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.

With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel’s military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.

“The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed,” the Israeli military said.

President Biden is meanwhile is said to be “pissed” with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a “grave mistake”.

So far this sounds like more mere empty words of “concern” – a talking point that’s been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base – but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for “an immediate ceasefire”.

The call readout further said ceasefire is needed to “protect innocent civilians” in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an “ultimatum” as the US president “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable.”

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

April 4, 2024

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

With ever-present fears, Tehran could launch a missile or drone attack against Israel to avenge the deaths of three commanders and four officers of the Iranian Armed Forces, taken out by a precision Israeli airstrike at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus earlier this week. New data suggests that GPS jamming across Israel is likely related to prudent defensive efforts to counter such an attack.

On Thursday, Reuters journalists and Tel Aviv residents said GPS service deteriorated and, in some cases, entirely disrupted as an attempt by the military to prevent guided missiles and drones from hitting critical high-value targets deep within the nation.

Many bombs, drones, and other weapons use GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) for increased accuracy. Signs of GNSS signals disrupted are more evidence Israel is on the defensive as it awaits missile attacks from Iran.

Data from the GPS interference website “GPSJAM” shows large swaths of Israel have high levels of GPS interference.

Other signs the conflict in the Middle East is broadening and entering a new dimension are reports that the Israeli military halted leave for all combat units on Thursday.

“The IDF is at war, and the deployment of forces is under continuous assessment according to requirements,” the military told Reuters in a statement.

In a separate report, Israel’s military said it was strengthening its aerial defense system with reserve soldiers:

“It was decided to increase manpower and draft reserve soldiers to the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Aerial Defense Array.”

This follows the deaths of some of the highest-ranking leaders in the Quds Force, who were in charge of Iran’s covert intelligence and military operations across Syria and Lebanon on Monday. The strike was among the deadliest for the Iranian military in years (read: “ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: This Is A Declaration Of War”).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel just raised the risk of a regional war

April 4, 2024

Israel just raised the risk of a regional war

And US troops may suffer the consequences.

Iranian protesters burn US flags during a protest gathering to condemn the Israeli airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Syria, at Palestine Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2024.

Joshua Keating is a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. He is the author of the 2018 book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood, an exploration of border conflicts, unrecognized countries, and changes to the world map.

Even as the fighting has raged in Gaza, a question has hung over the war: Would it escalate into a wider regional conflict involving Iran, its various proxy groups, and perhaps even the US military?

Nearly six months after October 7, it’s a mixed picture. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have played a much larger role in the conflict than most observers expected, up to the point of meaningfully disrupting international shipping. But early fears that a full-scale war with Lebanon-based Hezbollah would break out on Israel’s “northern front” or that the Iranian government itself would get directly involved haven’t materialized.

Nonetheless, Monday marked a major step up the escalatory ladder. Warplanes, presumably Israeli, carried out an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, which killed a senior Iranian general, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was deeply involved in his government’s activities in Syria and Lebanon. He is the highest-ranking Iranian military officer killed by enemy fire since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in 2020.

Per its general practice with strikes in Syria, Israel has not officially acknowledged the attack, but four Israeli officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed their involvement to the New York Times…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead

March 29, 2024

Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead

On Friday Israel conducted its deadliest strikes on Syria in months, or perhaps even years, given the immense death toll is mounting into several dozens killed amid a large emergency response to the scene.

The airstrikes were conducted deep into Syria, in northern Syria’s Aleppo province, and left over 40 people dead. This reportedly included Syrian soldiers, Hezbollah militants, and civilians. Most international reports are saying 42 were killed, but the Syrian government did not initially give a precise casualty count.

*Stillframe of local footage showing massive attack on northern Aleppo.*

The anti-Assad opposition and UK-based organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that the Aleppo attack left the highest number of dead among Syrian soldiers in a single such Israeli attack. While Israel doesn’t typically directly own up to or confirm such attacks on Syrian soil, its military has been conducting sporadic attacks on Syria going back years.

The attack happened in the pre-dawn, overnight hours – with state-run SANA emphasizing that many civilians were killed and wounded, but without giving a figure.

Syria’s defense ministry pointed to the airstrikes having some level of coordination from “terrorist organizations” on the ground which “in conjunction” to the air raid carried out drone attacks, presumably from Al-Qaeda (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) occupied Idlib. Some reports are saying that Israeli warplanes hit a “Hezbollah warehouse” – though there’s no ground confirmation of this.

This new major attack comes the day after Israeli airstrikes on a suburb of Damascus, which reportedly wounded two civilians. Israeli officials and media have long claimed to be waging a campaign against Iranian and IRGC operatives and assets in Syria.

Sky News has verified social media video showing massive explosions from the site of the overnight Aleppo attacks:

After the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, this ‘counter Iran’ campaign has also focused on Lebanon, where Tehran-backed Hezbollah has entered a hot conflict with Israeli forces along the border.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

March 26, 2024

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

The majority of Americans believe it is likely that the US will be involved in a world war during the coming decade. Under President Joe Biden, the US is preparing for great power wars with Russia and China, engaged in multiple Middle East conflicts, and posturing for a confrontation with Iran and North Korea.

According to a new YouGov poll, 61% of Americans responded that it is very or somewhat likely that a world war would break out in the next five to ten years. About two-thirds of people responding to the poll said they believe the war will turn into a nuclear conflict.

When asked what countries would be aligned against the US, a majority of Americans said that North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and China. Americans identified NATO members such as France and the UK, as well as Israel and Ukraine, as allies in the coming world war.

Americans are not overly optimistic about the potential conflict. A slight majority believe the US and its allies would defeat Russia. While under half of respondents said the US would lose a war with Russia or against an alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

While most Americans believe a global conflict is on the horizon, they are not interested in fighting the war. More than twice as many respondents said they would refuse service even if drafted than stated, they would volunteer if the war broke out. Americans responded that they were more likely to serve in non-combat roles or if the homeland was threatened.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

It’s War: The Real Meat Grinder Starts Now

March 25, 2024

Exhibit 1: Friday, March 22, 2024. It’s War. The Kremlin, via Peskov, finally admits it, on the record.

The money quote:

“Russia cannot allow the existence on its borders of a state that has a documented intention to use any methods to take Crimea away from it, not to mention the territory of new regions.”

Translation: the Hegemon-constructed Kiev mongrel is doomed, one way or another. The Kremlin signal: “We haven’t even started” starts now.

Exhibit 2: Friday afternoon, a few hours after Peskov. Confirmed by a serious European – not Russian – source. The first counter-signal.

Regular troops from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. A substantial force. No numbers leaked. They are being housed in schools. For all practical purposes, this is a NATO force.

That signals, “Let the games begin”. From a Russian point of view, Mr. Khinzal’s business cards are set to be in great demand.

Exhibit 3: Friday evening. Terror attack on Crocus City, a music venue northwest of Moscow. A heavily trained commando shoots people on sight, point blank, in cold blood, then sets a concert hall on fire. The definitive counter-signal: with the battlefield collapsing, all that’s left is terrorism in Moscow.

And just as terror was striking Moscow, the US and the UK, in southwest Asia, was bombing Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, with at least five strikes.

Some nifty coordination. Yemen has just clinched a strategic deal in Oman with Russia-China for no-hassle navigation in the Red Sea, and is among the top candidates for BRICS+ expansion at the summit in Kazan next October.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

March 12, 2024

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

Israel has continued signaling that it is preparing to launch a major new operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon following months of tit-for-tat escalation. Some 80,000 Israeli residents whose homes are near the border have remained evacuated since October and November, and are essentially internally displaced. Because of this, pressure has mounted on Israeli leaders to do something that would allow their return, and ensure the security of Israel’s north.

Israeli media, particularly YNet News reported on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing “contingency plans” for a wide-scale attack on Lebanon. Israeli Army Northern Command head Major General Ori Gordin in a meeting with settler leaders from northern Israel stated, “We are preparing contingency plans to launch an attack in Lebanon. Our commitment, mine, is to change the security situation so that the residents can be returned home.”

YNet further unveiled plans to initiate the army’s “Operation Steady Anchor” which aims to protect civilians during the expected escalation in fighting. Hezbollah is widely estimated to possess over 150,000 rockets – some of which can likely reach Haifa and Tel Aviv.

The operation involves setting up dozens of mass shelters utilizing fortified abandoned buildings and underground parking garages. This is to protect civilians in the instance of a mass Hezbollah rocket barrage. The shelters will be equipped to allow families to take refuge anywhere from a few hours to up to several days.

In another key sign of Tel Aviv’s war preparations, the IDF has been conducing a logistics supply drill focused on its northern bases and positions, and in preparation for a Lebanon offensive This has included practice runs delivering ammo, equipment, water, and fuel to simulated “maneuvering forces” operating in southern Lebanon.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Are France & The UK Plotting A Ukrainian Power Play Right Under Germany’s Nose?

March 11, 2024

Are France & The UK Plotting A Ukrainian Power Play Right Under Germany’s Nose?

There are indeed plans for a conventional Western intervention in Ukraine despite their leaders’ denials over the past two weeks, but they’ve yet to fully form and their execution can’t be taken for granted, but they also can’t be ruled out either.

The debate that French President Macron provoked over whether NATO should conventionally intervene in Ukraine exposed the existence of two distinct schools of thought on this issue inside of Europe. France, the Baltic States, and Poland appear to be in favor of “non-combat deployments” there for demining and training missions, which could be carried out through a “coalition of the willing”, while the rest of the bloc supports Germany’s stance that this shouldn’t happen under any circumstances.

“Scholz’s Slip Of The Tongue Spilled The Beans On Ukraine’s Worst-Kept Secret”, however, since he inadvertently revealed that there are already British and French troops there helping Ukraine with “target control”. The subsequently leaked Bundeswehr recording about bombing the Crimean Bridge confirmed that the Americans are there too. Nevertheless, what’s being proposed by Paris is a formalization of these deployments along with their gradual expansion in a “non-combat” capacity.

Nobody should be fooled into thinking that France and the other four that appear to be in favor of this scenario are solely interested in demining and training missions. Rather, their intent seems to be to prepare these on-the-ground forces for surging eastward in the event that the worst-case scenario from Kiev’s perspective materializes whereby the frontline collapses and Russia starts steamrolling westward. These NATO members would then try to draw a red line in the sand as far as possible to save Ukraine.

Germany’s approach is altogether different in that it prefers to formally stay out of the fray in order to focus on building “Fortress Europe”…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

What the Western Press Didn’t Say About the Leaked Luftwaffe Conversation

March 11, 2024

What if a conversation between Russian officials discussing the explosion of a bridge in Germany had been revealed? Would Western press coverage also treat the leak as something more serious than threats of military attack?

On March 1, the editor-in-chief of the Rossiya Segodnya group, journalist Margarita Simonyan, revealed, on her Telegram channel, a 38-minute audio in which officers from the German Air Force (Luftwaffe) discussed the possibility of sending missiles long-range Taurus to Ukraine and whether they would be able to reach the Crimean bridge in the Kerch Strait, which connects the peninsula to the mainland and is Russian territory.

The Russian press, naturally, made much of the revelation. This forced the mainstream Western media – especially German ones – to report the leak. But whoever thought that a miracle would happen, that is, that the Western press would finally raise the issue of NATO’s military threats against Russia… well, those people are simply very naive.

The Western mass media, as always, tried to manipulate the news and hide the main issue.

The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, The Guardian, Die Welt and Der Spiegel published 39 articles on the topic on their respective websites between the time the news was revealed and the evening of March 6th (when I write these lines).

The two North American newspapers did not want to highlight the matter. The Post published two reports and the Times only one. The three expressed concern about the fragility of German intelligence security systems in the face of Russian espionage.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Endgame, Part I

March 3, 2024

The Endgame, Part I

The Russo-Ukrainian war and geopolitics of Europe

In early February, I posted a poll on X asking whether I should write a geopolitical piece on the Russo-Ukrainian war, adding to my series mapping a worst-case scenario for the war. While the vote count for this particular poll was not very high, an overwhelming majority supported this notion.

Before conducting the poll, developments in Ukraine in December and January had led me to ponder the outcome, or endgame, of the war. In September 2022, I had established an alternative to the western narrative of the war, spewed relentlessly by our media. In it, I argued that

Ukrainian losses are massive, passing Russian losses possibly 5-10 times.
The Russian army has not collapsed, but it may have become the strongest it has been since WWII.
The West (NATO) is fighting a proxy-war in Ukraine with the possible aim of regime change in Russia.
Russia is about to create a war-machine not seen in Europe for a very long time, which it could use to unleash a devastating attack against Ukrainian (NATO) forces during the winter.

In late-October 2022, I also noted that:

The massive force Russia is amassing and the all-but-halted progress of Ukrainian forces, tells me that we are most likely approaching a turning point in the war. In the worst case, this implies that Ukraine has already lost. Even in the best case (excluding peace) this means that the war will drag on and become a resource race between NATO and Russia.

Now, essentially all of this, except the Russian winter-offensive (2022/23) have been proven true. Ukraine has effectively lost the war, or a least she cannot win it in any plausible scenario. Just a few days ago, French President Emmanuel Macron attempted a game-changer, by “not ruling out” NATO boots in Ukraine…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

February 21, 2024

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

EU warships have set off for the Red Sea, where the US navy is waging its largest conflict since the end of WWII in support of Israel

(Photo Credit: Getty Images)

A high-ranking Yemeni official has warned the EU against “supporting the American devil to protect [Israel]” following the formal launch of the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea.

“For Europeans, do not play with fire. Take a lesson from Britain,” Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, said via social media on 20 February.

“You do not need the support of the American devil in protecting the occupying entity so that it can exterminate the people of Gaza with no disturbance,” Houthi added, stressing that “international navigation is safe.”

His message followed an announcement by Brussels of the official launch of the EU naval operation codenamed Aspides – Greek for shield.

“I welcome today’s decision … Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said via social media.

France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium have said they will contribute ships to the EU mission in support of Israel.

The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, described the mission as “bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community.”

With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides will see the deployment of EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to officials in Brussels, the mission will be exclusively defensive, and its forces will not partake in US-led attacks against Yemen.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

War Expands With Massive Israeli Airstrikes 60km Deep Into Lebanon

February 20, 2024

War Expands With Massive Israeli Airstrikes 60km Deep Into Lebanon

The Israel-Hezbollah war is expanding, which was on display Monday as Israel for the first time struck near a large city which is deep inside Lebanon, far away from the border, in the region of Ghaziyeh.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has confirmed in a statement that military was behind large airstrikes that rocked a town just south of Sidon earlier in the day. Hagari the strikes targeted Hezbollah weapons depots, and also served as a response to an explosive-laden that struck northern Israel previously on Monday. Video captured the moment of the massive airstrikes:

Happening now: More footage from Israel’s bombing of Lebanese civilian areas 45 kms from the border. It is clearly visible that these are homes in a residential area. Sidon is under the control of the Lebanese army, which receives financial assistance from the US govt. pic.twitter.com/ebTde3HvWG

— Sharmine Narwani (@snarwani) February 19, 2024

Sidon is the third largest city in Lebanon, and the region that was attack lies at least 45-60 kilometers from the Israeli border. So far the tit-for-tat strikes which stretch back to early October, following the Hamas terror attack on southern Israel, have been confined to southern Lebanon. Fighting has by and large stayed to within kilometers of the border on either side.

“Israeli jets attacked near Sidon on Monday, Israeli media reported, citing the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper,” regional media also confirms. “The two strikes occurred in the region of Ghaziyeh some 60 km from Israel’s northern border.”

Videos of the strikes show a huge fireball erupt high into the air…

⚡️First moments of the zionist airstrikes on the Ghaziyeh area in Lebanon pic.twitter.com/WGQWW22rYY

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 19, 2024

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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