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U.S. Oil Production Is Rising Much Faster Than Expected

U.S. Oil Production Is Rising Much Faster Than Expected Shale executives have gone to great lengths to convince investors that they will not drill aggressively now that oil prices have rallied into the $60s. But in a new report released on Tuesday, the EIA essentially said that those assurances are just a lot of hot […]

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WTI/RBOB Sink After US OIl Production Hits Record High, Surpassing Saudi

WTI/RBOB Sink After US OIl Production Hits Record High, Surpassing Saudi WTI/RBOB held on to gains after last night’s surprise crude draw from API, but quickly tumbled after DOE reported a 1.9mm crude build (2nd week in a row) and significant gasoline and distillate builds. However, US crude production’s massive spike to 10.25m b/d was […]

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US Rig Count Soars Most In 10 Months As Production Hits Record High

US Rig Count Soars Most In 10 Months As Production Hits Record High US rig counts rose by 12 in the last week – the biggest rise since March 2017 – as the lagged crude price is sparking more drilling and in turn sending production surging to a new record high… just shy of Saudi […]

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US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update

US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update From Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 US Tight oil output has increased by 975 kb/d based on US tight oil output data from the EIA. For the entire US we only have EIA monthly output estimates through Oct 2017. Over the Dec 2016 to Oct […]

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The 2018 Oil Production Forecast Explained

The 2018 Oil Production Forecast Explained In my recent post, Oil Price Scenario for 2018, my global supply forecast was seriously at odds with those presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Rystad Energy, a respected Norwegian consulting firm. This post puts more flesh on my 2018 oil production view. The post could easily have […]

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U.S. Oil Has One Fatal Weakness

U.S. Oil Has One Fatal Weakness U.S. crude oil production is again on the rise, and exports of American crude are smashing records. But most of the U.S. oil production is light tight oil, and American exports—especially those of very light sweet crude—may hit a demand constraint next year, Bill Barnes, director of energy consultancy […]

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Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away?

Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say. However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon […]

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Rig Count Slumps To 3-Month Lows As US Crude Production Collapses

Rig Count Slumps To 3-Month Lows As US Crude Production Collapses US crude production collapsed this week with most of Texas offline and we would expect rig counts to have continued to stabilize (if not fall) following the lagged track of WTI, and they did – oil rigs dropped 3 to 756, the lowest since […]

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How EIA Guestimates Keep Oil Prices Subdued

How EIA Guestimates Keep Oil Prices Subdued The EIA has once again undercut its previous estimates for U.S. oil production, offering further evidence that the U.S. shale industry is not producing as much as everyone thinks. The monthly EIA oil production figures tend to be more accurate than the weekly estimates, although they are published […]

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Looming Gas Shortage: “Imports Can’t Make Up For This”

Looming Gas Shortage: “Imports Can’t Make Up For This” The East Coast will start feeling the effects of Hurricane Harvey as the gasoline supplied from the Gulf Coast starts to dry up. One of the most important pipelines that ships refined products to the Eastern Seaboard shut down on Thursday, which means that the U.S. […]

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Rig Count Rises To April 2015 Highs As Analysts Warn “Oil Market Rebalancing Hasn’t Even Started Yet”

Rig Count Rises To April 2015 Highs As Analysts Warn “Oil Market Rebalancing Hasn’t Even Started Yet” After falling for the first time this year two weeks ago, Baker Hughes reports US oil rig count rose once again (up 2 to 765) for the 24th week in the last 25, to the highest since April […]

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US Crude Production Tops 9 Million Barrels As Rig Count Hits 16-Month Highs

US Crude Production Tops 9 Million Barrels As Rig Count Hits 16-Month Highs The US oil rig count rose once again this week (up 5) to 602 – the highest since October 2015. US crude production is surging – back above 9 million barrels/day in the last week – the largest since April 2016. The […]

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US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices

US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I […]

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Is The EIA Too Optimistic On U.S. Oil Output?

Is The EIA Too Optimistic On U.S. Oil Output? After following the weekly production statistics avidly for some months and initially being smugly pleased by the data saying exactly what I wanted to hear, I then became completely befuddled by the data saying the opposite. I had almost reached the conclusion that the weekly production […]

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? It is unbelievable how many times I’ve heard people telling me “the US has become self-sufficient in oil production,” a group that includes some respectable members of the EU parliament. This is probably due to the confusion that the media have made on the fact that the US production has […]

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