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UBS: “The Petroyuan Will Undermine America’s Dominant Role And Create A Sea Change In Global Markets”

April 29, 2018

UBS: “The Petroyuan Will Undermine America’s Dominant Role And Create A Sea Change In Global Markets” From Hayden Briscoe, head of Fixed Income, Asia Pacific at UBS RMB-denominated oil contracts began trading for the first time in Shanghai on March 26. We believe that in the long term this will ultimately change how oil is […]

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Benn Steil: Could China Have a Reserves Crisis?

February 16, 2016

BENN STEIL: COULD CHINA HAVE A RESERVES CRISIS? Last summer, U.S. lawmakers were condemning China for pushing down its currency, arguing that it was still “terribly undervalued.” But those days may be long gone.  Chinese and foreigners alike have been stampeding out of RMB, leaving the Chinese central bank struggling to keep its value up and prevent […]

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Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play

October 23, 2015

Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play Just two days ago, we noted that according to Citi’s Willem Buiter, there would be “Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe.” Fast forward 48 hours when he is […]

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Not the “Death of the Dollar” but “Death of the Euro?”

October 7, 2015

Not the “Death of the Dollar” but “Death of the Euro?” The rise of the Chinese yuan as an international currency is not only unstoppable but is advancing in leaps and bounds, according to SWIFT. It comes at the expense of other currencies, though it’s not triggering the long-awaited “death of the dollar.” On the contrary. […]

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China: Doomed If You Do, Doomed If You Don’t

September 1, 2015

China: Doomed If You Do, Doomed If You Don’t Whichever option China chooses, it loses. Many commentators have ably explained the double-bind the central banks of the world find themselves in. Doing more of what’s failed is, well, failing to generate the desired results, but doing nothing also presents risks. China’s double-bind is especially instructive. While there an […]

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How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown

August 31, 2015

How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown Last week, in “What China’s Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse,” we took a look at the potential size of the RMB carry trade, noting that according to BofAML, the unwind could, in the worst case scenario, be somewhere on the […]

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Will China’s Currency Peg Be the Next to Fall?

February 13, 2015

Will China’s Currency Peg Be the Next to Fall? I suspect China’s leadership is wary of unpegging the RMB for one reason: the FX market is too large to manipulate for long. What is China’s currency the renminbi (RMB, a.k.a. yuan) really worth? Nobody knows, because price discovery has been thwarted by the RMB’s peg to the […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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