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Saxo Bank: Overwhelming Demand for Silver Will Push 2021 Prices to $50

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Industrial demand to push silver prices to $50 in 2021, what Swiss gold data tells us about global gold demand, and why space mining will most likely remain confined to science fiction.

Saxo Bank: Overwhelming demand for silver will push prices to $50 next year

For the global markets, the tale of the tape this year has been one of uncertainty. One of the few things traders and investors have had no trouble betting on, however, is higher inflation and currency debasement. With trillions of dollars pumped into the economy and trillions more on the way, the question of fiat debasement has become one of when, rather than if.

Loose monetary policy is just one part of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda, with a push towards green energy being another prominent point on his administration’s bottom line. The worldwide bid for green energy has already helped elevate silver in recent years, but now, Saxo Bank’s analysts believe the metal could shoot up to as high as $50 next year as the manufacturing sector recovers.

In their annual Outrageous Prediction report, the bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen made silver one of the top talking points. As Hansen explained, the bank is highly bullish on silver as demand from manufacturers is set to collide with investor interest. Having already doubled from its March lows of around $12 and outperformed gold in doing so, Hansen sees $50 silver in 2021 as a very realistic target.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End Game

The End Game

Dear Investors:

Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes. Comparable conditions were present with the 1972 Nifty Fifty and 2000 Dotcom bubbles as we show in the chart below.

As capital seeks to redeploy towards the highest growth and lowest valuation opportunities, we expect analytically minded investors will soon be rotating, if not stampeding, out of expensive deflation-era growth equities and fixed income securities and into cheap hard assets, creating a reversal in the 30-year declining trend of money velocity.

Today’s Modern Monetary Theory world with its double barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus is crashing head on with an accumulation of years of declining investment in the basic industries such as materials, energy, and agriculture. In our analysis, the “end game” for the Fed’s twin asset bubbles in stocks and bonds is inflation. We can already see it developing on the commodity front.

The scarcity of jobs and abundance of debt were factors preventing the economy from reaching its full growth potential even before Covid-19. Such have been the concepts underlying the output gap, the theoretical paradox that is thought to have held inflation in check over the course of the last business cycle. But based on comparable historic periods, the macro setup for inflation is more likely to be kicked off by an input gap, i.e., shortages in the primary resources needed for both a strong reserve currency and economic growth at the same time as policy makers pull out their biggest bazookas yet to boost aggregate demand. We expect a new wave of rising commodity prices, set up by past underinvestment in basic resources, to soon ripple through the global supply chain creating a headwind for real living standards. Welcome to the Great Reset.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Billionaire Investor Thomas Kaplan: “Gold Prices to Move ‘Way Past’ All-Time Highs”

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Billionaire investor sees gold blazing far past August’s high, gold is scheduled for a re-run in 2021, and hoard of medieval gold coins unearthed in an English back yard.

Gold’s new all-time high is just the start, says billionaire investor

The bull run in gold that saw the metal blaze to a new all-time high of $2,071 in August might have, at first glance, been a result of the pandemic. To be sure, the prevalent uncertainty and the multi-trillion dollar stimulus dump did their part in elevating prices above the previous high set in 2011. In an interview with Kitco, billionaire Thomas Kaplan explained why gold is really in a prolonged bull market that started in the early 2000s.

Kaplan, who did his doctoral dissertation on commodity supply and demand, said that gold is currently in the third wave of a decades-long uptrend. The first wave launched gold from $250 to $900, with the second wave pulling gold towards the $1,200-$1,900 range. And, as has often been pointed out by careful observers, gold was already on a bull run and had reached $1,800 before the pandemic.

The pandemic, however, has caused both investors and the average citizen to re-evaluate what money really is. Kaplan points out that a trillion dollars, which seemed nearly unfathomable just a few years back, now appears to have become “the new billion” in a staggering display of paper-money inflation. While not exactly good for the mining industry, Kaplan also highlighted the ongoing struggles when it comes to production, adding that new ore is not only increasingly difficult to find but also of a lesser quality.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Golden Road Remains Constant

The Golden Road Remains Constant

One must always be careful to distinguish between a truism, a claim or narrative which is so deeply embedded into the fabric of cultural understanding that it is taken to be an indisputable historical fact, and truth, a continuing, self-evident feature of reality which is available to be observed, reasoned about, and tested in the present. Truisms are the handmaidens of convention which, for economic participants, eventually come to replace objective observations. The result is that the ‘science’ of economics is transformed into a battleground for subjective beliefs, where the soldiers are not self-evident observations or testable predictions, but, rather, fashionable claims and politically-correct statements. In recent times, we have seen this to be the case for the Philips Curve, the theory of aggregate demand, and Keynes inversion of Say’s Law.[1] These, among many similar economic ideas, are modern truisms which, though falsified by present-day economic observation, persist as structures of belief which are dearly held by the economists and politicians who shape our collective future.

In this essay, I will draw the reader’s attention to a truism which endures as conventional wisdom today, even though it can be easily falsified by plain experience and objective examination. I speak of a belief which colours the whole of recent economic history: the judgment that the natural element Gold (Au) is now relegated to its present status as a store of value because payment technology has evolved beyond physical media. The whiggish story goes something like this: just as we humans evolve, so, too, does our civilization progress along the rising road of history; therefore, just as our maturing societies exhibit increased technical capabilities, so do our monetary instruments undoubtedly improve with the march of time…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver Eagle Sales Surge To Highest Level In Nine Months & SRSrocco Report Interview With Palisades Radio

Silver Eagle Sales Surge To Highest Level In Nine Months & SRSrocco Report Interview With Palisades Radio

Investor demand for precious metals remains strong as the U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales in November were the highest in nine months.  Not only were Silver Eagle sales the highest since March, when the pandemic caused investors to wipe-out inventories, but Gold Eagle sales also jumped by another 25,500 troy oz this past week.

According to the U.S. Mint data, Silver Eagles sales increased from 4,081,000 on Nov. 23rd to 4,805,000 on Nov 30th.  Total Silver Eagle sales for 2020 are now 29.3 million.

Silver Eagle sales in November at 4.8 million are the second highest in the year compared to the 5.5 million sold in March when the silver price fell to $12 during the stock market crash due to the pandemic lockdown.  It seems likely that Silver Eagle sales will reach and surpass 30 million this year.

UPDATE DEC 1st 2:30 PM MST:  It looks like the U.S. Mint sold another 276,000 Silver Eagles on the first day of December.  Total Silver Eagles for 2020 are now 29.6 million.  I believe we may even see 31 million sold for the year.

Furthermore, in November, Gold Eagle sales reached 88,000 oz for a total of 794,500 oz for the year versus 152,000 oz for full-year 2019.

As I have stated many times, I believe we are just beginning to see the MASSIVE SURGE of precious metals investment demand over the following years, especially in 2021.  There is so much CARNAGE taking place in the U.S. economy that hasn’t been factored into the stock markets or mainstream media.

Here is my interview with Tom Bodrovics at Palisades Radio, which we recorded last week on Friday:

The global reset scam

The global reset scam

This article takes a tilt at increasing speculation about statist global resets, and why plans such as those promoted by the World Economic Forum will fail. Central bank digital currencies will simply run out of time.

Instead, the collapse of unbacked fiat currencies will end all supra-national government solutions to their policy failures. Already, there is mounting evidence of money beginning to flee bank accounts into stocks, commodities and even bitcoin. This is an early warning of a rapidly developing monetary collapse.

Moreover, nothing can now stop the collapse of fiat currencies, and with it schemes to control humanity for the convenience and ambitions of government planners. There can only be one statist solution and that is to mobilise gold reserves to back and save their currencies, which in order to succeed will have to be fully convertible into circulating gold coinage. It will also require the role of governments to be reset into a non-welfare, non-interventionist minimalist role, which can only be achieved after a complete collapse of the current fiat-financed system.

Anything less will fail.

The Deep State and The Blob fuel conspiracy theories

Increasingly, people are beginning to realise that their world is undergoing a period of rapid change, with the future of fiat money now uncertain. For most, it is too difficult to even contemplate. But growing uncertainties are driving wild speculation about what those in authority now have in store for the human race in the form of a global reset. It is a time for conspiracy theorists, aided and abetted by our politicians and central bankers who are being increasingly evasive, because events are spiralling out of their control.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Americans Are Leading The World By Hedging Their Bets In Silver

Americans Are Leading The World By Hedging Their Bets In Silver

When it comes to silver, Americans are leading the world in hedging their bets in the shiny metal.  This year, Americans have purchased one out of every three ounces of physical silver bar and coin compared to the rest of the world.  And, that’s not all.  If we also consider total Silver ETF demand, the U.S. based SLV ETF has seen its inventories increase by over 200 million oz in 2020.

Thus, Americans have purchased nearly half of all the global physical and ETF silver investment this year.  According to the Metals Focus Silver Interim Report for the Silver Institute, the U.S. is projected to see a 62% increase in physical silver bar and coin demand this year over 2019.  Based on the 2020 World Silver Survey data, total U.S. physical silver demand was 48.2 million oz (Moz) last year.  Simple math puts the total estimate for U.S. silver bar and coin demand at 78 Moz in 2020.  With global physical silver investment to be 237 Moz this year, the U.S. accounts for one-third of the total.

Furthermore, the U.S. based iShares SLV ETF, saw its inventories increase more than 200 Moz this year, accounting for two-thirds of the total 300 Moz growth in global silver ETFs.

Now, I don’t know if all that silver is located in the SLV ETF vaults, but it is still an excellent indicator revealing the increasing need for Americans to place more of their wealth into silver.  I believe this is only the beginning of a rising trend that will continue over the following years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Do Not Trust Governments With the Control of Money

If there one thing that is fairly certain in this life – besides the seeming inescapability of death and taxes – is that once someone is appointed to almost any position in the political and bureaucratic structures of a government they soon discover how important and essential is the organization of which they are a part for the well-being of the nation. The country could not exist without it, along with its increasing budget and expanded authority. This applies to the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, no less than other parts of government.

The news media has reported that the apparently unlikely appointment of Dr. Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors probably will be successfully maneuvered through the full Senate confirmation process. Shelton would then sit on the Federal Reserve Board for a 14-year term. Hers has been one of the more controversial nominations to the Fed in recent years, with critics fervently expressing their negative views of her.

For instance, Tony Fratto, a former Treasury official and deputy press secretary under George W. Bush, was recently quoted as saying that Shelton’s appointment would be “a discredit to the Senate and the Fed. It screams. Nothing at all is serious. Not us. Not you. Not them.”

Mainstream Economists Against Anyone for Gold

Back in August of this year, over one hundred academic and business economists issued an open letter to members of the U.S. Senate calling for rejection of her nomination to the Fed. Among those who signed were some economics Nobel Laureates, including Robert Lucas and Joseph Stiglitz. They insisted on her unfitness for such an appointment. Why? They said: “She has advocated a return to the gold standard; she has questioned the need for federal deposit insurance; she has even questioned the need for a central bank at all.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The monetary logic for gold and silver

The monetary logic for gold and silver

A considered reflection of current events leads to only one conclusion, and that is accelerating inflation of the dollar’s money supply is firmly on the path to destroying the dollar’s purchasing power — completely.

This article looks at the theoretical and empirical evidence from previous fiat money collapses in order to impart the knowledge necessary for individuals to seek early protection from an annihilation of fiat currencies. It assesses the likely speed of the collapse of fiat money and debates the future of money in a post-fiat world, in which the likely successors are metallic money — gold and silver— and some would say cryptocurrencies.

Early action to lessen the impact of a failure of the fiat regime requires an understanding of the role of money in order to decide what will be the future money when fiat dies. Will we be pricing goods and services in gold or a cryptocurrency? Will gold be priced in bitcoin or bitcoin priced in gold? And if bitcoin is priced in gold, will its function of a store of value still exist?

Introduction

This week saw the news that a vaccine had been found to combat the coronavirus. At least it offers the prospect of humanity ridding itself of the virus in due course, but it will not be enough to rescue the global economy from its deeper problems. Monetary inflation is therefore far from running its course.

The reaction in financial markets to the vaccine news was contradictory: equity markets rallied strongly ignoring rapidly deteriorating fundamentals, and gold slumped on a minor recovery in the dollar’s trade weighted index. Rather than blindly accepting the reasons for outcomes put forward by the financial press we must accept that during these inflationary times that markets are not functioning efficiently.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Main Driver Of The Global Gold Market Totally Reversed This Year

The Main Driver Of The Global Gold Market Totally Reversed This Year

Something quite interesting took place in the gold market this year that hasn’t happened before.  Let’s just say the global gold market’s main driver has totally reversed and is setting a new precedent.  However, this is just the beginning as the world hasn’t quite figured out how bad the situation will become as the global economy continues to disintegrate.

So, what’s the main driver of the gold market this year??  Well, I can tell you what it isn’t… it’s not gold jewelry demand.  World gold jewelry demand has been the leading driver of the gold market for decades.  The chart below shows how much more annual gold jewelry demand has been versus investment demand over the past decade.

If we add up all the annual totals for the 10-year period, there were 22,734 metric tons of gold jewelry demand (731 million oz) versus 13,015 metric tons of net gold investment demand (418 million oz).  And, if we go back to 2000 or 2001, the ratio was much worse.  According to the World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends data, there was a total of 166 metric tons of retail gold investment in 2000 compared to 3,204 metric tons of gold jewelry demand.  So, the main driver for the gold market before the 2008-2009 financial crisis was jewelry demand.

However, this all changed in 2020 as the pandemic forced the Fed and Central Banks to do what they do best… PROP UP THE ECONOMY & FINANCIAL SYSTEM, but on steroids.  This has a profound impact on global gold investment, especially in the west.

As we can see in the chart below, global gold jewelry demand reversed with investment demand as being the main driver of the gold market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

It is the the massive debt. It cannot be serviced. It will collapse the whole system.

The gold, silver and cryptocurrencies charts are showing signs of going parabolic. The US dollar is close to confirming a massive breakdown.

Gold, silver and cryptocurrencies all provide “crisis value” by simply being an acceptable debt-based fiat alternative. It is only later in this crisis that we will see a divergence between cryptocurrency and precious metals.

For now, they are likely to move higher together.

Gold has recently made new all-time highs, and seems ready to go higher after a decent consolidation. The importance of the 2011 all-time high can be seen on these charts:

I have marked two fractals (ABC). Both fractals start from the Dow/Gold ratio peaks (1966 and 1999). For these to continue the similarity, the level ($1920) at A and C needs to be surpassed on the current fractal.

We’ve already seen the breakout, now price has just been consolidating around that level. It is very close to blasting higher.

From a cycle analysis point of view, we are right at a point where a sustained multi-year gold rally is possible:

The top chart is gold from about 1997 to 2020 (current fractal), and the bottom chart is gold from about 1965 to 1980 (70s fractals). If the current fractal continues to follow the 70s fractal, then we could see gold continue to multiples of its current all-time high.

Currently, we are just after, or close to, a major Dow peak in the economic cycle. Again, you can see that the 2011 peak is an important indicator to confirm these fractals as relevant. It could also be considered a marker after which the chart is likely to go parabolic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. MINT SEPTEMBER SALES: 134 Times More Silver Eagles Sold Than Gold Eagles

U.S. MINT SEPTEMBER SALES: 134 Times More Silver Eagles Sold Than Gold Eagles

With the enormous investor demand for Silver Eagles, the U.S. Mint sold nearly three million official coins in September.  While this wasn’t the highest monthly amount this year, it was a record when we compare the Silver Eagle sales to Gold Eagles.  And, it seems that U.S. citizens are purchasing the majority of the Silver Eagles as Americans prefer silver bullion coins (and rounds) over bars.

For those who might be new to the precious metals market, the official coins such as Silver Eagles, Maples, Philharmonics, Krugerrands, Kangaroos, Britannias, Pandas, and Libertads are known as “COINS.” In contrast, private rounds such as Buffalos, Walking Liberty, etc are labeled as “ROUNDS.”

While some investors prefer the Silver Maples because they have a better fineness (99.99% silver) versus the Silver Eagles (99.9% silver), there has been one heck of a lot more Silver Eagles sold and held in the market than Maples.  I don’t have a total Silver Maple Leaf coin figure because the Royal Canadian Mint stopped providing updates since 2015 on the amount of Gold & Silver Maples sold.

Regardless, here is an updated chart of the total Silver Eagles sold to date since 1986.

A total of 556 million Silver Eagles and 23.8 million Gold Eagles were sold from 1986 to September 2020.  That’s a half-billion oz of Silver Eagles sold since the U.S. Mint began producing them in 1986.  The ratio of total Silver Eagles to Gold Eagles over the 35 years was 23/1.  However, if we look at the ratio for September this year, it’s considerably higher.

The U.S. Mint sold 2,958,500 Silver Eagles and 22,000 oz of Gold Eagles during September.  Thus, the ratio was 134 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles.  The average ratio over the 2016-2019 period was 64/1.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Institutional Demand Will Drive Gold Ever Higher

INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND WILL DRIVE GOLD EVER HIGHER

Embrace uncertainty has long been one of my personal mottos. Because from this moment on, everything is uncertain whether it is your personal health, the stock market or the economy. Sure, we work with probabilities and the most likely is that the sun will rise tomorrow again and that I won’t die today. But we are now at a point in history when trend extrapolation is going to be not only precarious but also both foolish and impossible.

END OF A MAJOR CYCLE

That we are at the end of a major economic and social cycle is totally clear in my mind. But cycles don’t end overnight, if the world isn’t hit by a massive meteorite or nuclear bomb. Whether we are at the end of a 300 year cycle or a 2,000 year cycle, only future historians can tell the world. What is clear, at least to me, is that the end of this cycle started in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. Since then global debt has gone up exponentially and now we are in the very final stage of the cycle. This end of the end, that we are now in, was first evidenced by gold turning up at the beginning of this century.

This significant trend change in gold that started 20 years ago was a clear indicator that we are now seeing the end of the fiat money system. Even though manipulated through a corrupt paper market, gold still reveals the deceitful actions of governments and central banks. There is no better evidence than the fall of fiat in this century.

CENTRAL BANKS ARE PANICKING

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Mint Silver & Gold Eagle Sales Explode In August

U.S. Mint Silver & Gold Eagle Sales Explode In August

With the recent update from the U.S. Mint, Silver and Gold Eagle sales surged in August.  While Gold Eagle sales continue even higher during August, the real explosion took place in the Silver Eagle figures.  After the U.S. Mint adapted its fabrication processes to incorporate protections for employees due to the virus, production and sales of Silver and Gold Eagles took off again in August.

And, when I say that Silver Eagle sales EXPLODED in August, I wasn’t exaggerating.  In June, the U.S. Mint sold a bit more than one million Silver Eagles, but this more than quadrupled in August.  Total Silver Eagle sales in August were 4,477,000, higher than the total sales from August to December 2019 at 3,591,500.

In just one month, the U.S. Mint sold more Silver Eagles than during the last five months of 2019.  That is an impressive figure.  We finally see monthly sales figures similar to the monthly sales figures that took place during 2015 when the U.S. Mint sold 47 million Silver Eagles.

Already, Silver Eagle sales for January to September (first ten days) 2020 are higher at 19.1 million versus 14.8 million for full-year 2019.

If Silver Eagle sales continue to be healthy for the rest of the year, and the U.S. Mint can keep up with demand, we could easily see a total of 25-28 million sold for the entire year.  Furthermore, it seems as of premiums on Silver Eagles are finally coming down to a more reasonable level for investors.  Interestingly, investors are willing to pay these high premiums for Silver Eagles to acquire these U.S. Government official silver coins.

Now, if we look at the Gold Eagle sales for August, there were also quite impressive at 121,000 oz.  The U.S. Mint sold 121,000 oz of Gold Eagles in August compared to 152,000 oz for full-year 2019.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Big Month For The Silver Price?

Another Big Month For The Silver Price?

Precious metals investors are wondering if the Silver Rally will continue in September.  After the silver price reached nearly $30 in August, it has been consolidating lower over the past few weeks.  However, silver tried to surpass the $29 level but fell last week along with the broader markets.  So, the trend for silver in September may rely upon the broader markets.

I discussed this in my newest YouTube video update, Another Big Month For The Silver Price?  In the video, I explain some of the forces that will impact the silver price in September.

Furthermore, the $26 level on silver’s weekly chart is a significant support level going back ten years.  As you can see, once silver broke above the $26 level in late 2010, it remained above it until 2013.

We need to keep an eye on the broader markets as they will be one of the larger drivers of the gold and silver prices in September.  However, at some point, I believe the precious metals will DISCONNECT from the broader markets as investors move into gold and silver to protect wealth.

If you have not seen this article, it’s worth a read as Peru’s silver production declined in July, suggesting that the virus is still impacting the mining industry in the country.

With Peru’s silver production declining in July, this could cause more issues in the silver market as investors continue to move into the shiny metal.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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