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Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East 

March 26, 2024

Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East 

A twin crisis is unfolding for the Biden administration as the US tax-payer-funded Ukrainian military bombs key crude refineries deep within Russian territory with suicide drones. The administration has pleaded with the Ukranians to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as this will only contribute to tightening global supplies and push energy prices higher, as well as inflation in the US, hurting Biden’s re-election odds.

Now for the other crisis that’s unfolding in the Middle East: US Vice President Kamala Harris told ABC’s “This Week” that a major attack on the Gazan city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge, “would be a huge mistake.”

“We have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake,” Harris said.

She added: “I have studied the maps – there’s nowhere for those folks to go. And we’re looking at about a million and a half people in Rafah who are there because they were told to go there.”

Harris was asked whether there would be “consequences” from the US on an Israeli counteroffensive in Rafah. She responded, “I am ruling out nothing.”

This comes as The Jerusalem Post said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials say an operation into the southern Gazan city is “imminent.”

Bloomberg quoted Israeli intelligence that estimate about 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are in Rafah.

As we’ve explained before, in the note titled “Terrified” Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging,” Biden’s foreign policy has been and always been about crude markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

March 12, 2024

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

Israel has continued signaling that it is preparing to launch a major new operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon following months of tit-for-tat escalation. Some 80,000 Israeli residents whose homes are near the border have remained evacuated since October and November, and are essentially internally displaced. Because of this, pressure has mounted on Israeli leaders to do something that would allow their return, and ensure the security of Israel’s north.

Israeli media, particularly YNet News reported on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing “contingency plans” for a wide-scale attack on Lebanon. Israeli Army Northern Command head Major General Ori Gordin in a meeting with settler leaders from northern Israel stated, “We are preparing contingency plans to launch an attack in Lebanon. Our commitment, mine, is to change the security situation so that the residents can be returned home.”

Via AFP

YNet further unveiled plans to initiate the army’s “Operation Steady Anchor” which aims to protect civilians during the expected escalation in fighting. Hezbollah is widely estimated to possess over 150,000 rockets – some of which can likely reach Haifa and Tel Aviv.

The operation involves setting up dozens of mass shelters utilizing fortified abandoned buildings and underground parking garages. This is to protect civilians in the instance of a mass Hezbollah rocket barrage. The shelters will be equipped to allow families to take refuge anywhere from a few hours to up to several days.

In another key sign of Tel Aviv’s war preparations, the IDF has been conducing a logistics supply drill focused on its northern bases and positions, and in preparation for a Lebanon offensive This has included practice runs delivering ammo, equipment, water, and fuel to simulated “maneuvering forces” operating in southern Lebanon.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

February 21, 2024

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

EU warships have set off for the Red Sea, where the US navy is waging its largest conflict since the end of WWII in support of Israel

(Photo Credit: Getty Images)

A high-ranking Yemeni official has warned the EU against “supporting the American devil to protect [Israel]” following the formal launch of the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea.

“For Europeans, do not play with fire. Take a lesson from Britain,” Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, said via social media on 20 February.

“You do not need the support of the American devil in protecting the occupying entity so that it can exterminate the people of Gaza with no disturbance,” Houthi added, stressing that “international navigation is safe.”

His message followed an announcement by Brussels of the official launch of the EU naval operation codenamed Aspides – Greek for shield.

“I welcome today’s decision … Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said via social media.

France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium have said they will contribute ships to the EU mission in support of Israel.

The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, described the mission as “bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community.”

With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides will see the deployment of EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to officials in Brussels, the mission will be exclusively defensive, and its forces will not partake in US-led attacks against Yemen.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

War Expands With Massive Israeli Airstrikes 60km Deep Into Lebanon

February 20, 2024

War Expands With Massive Israeli Airstrikes 60km Deep Into Lebanon

The Israel-Hezbollah war is expanding, which was on display Monday as Israel for the first time struck near a large city which is deep inside Lebanon, far away from the border, in the region of Ghaziyeh.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has confirmed in a statement that military was behind large airstrikes that rocked a town just south of Sidon earlier in the day. Hagari the strikes targeted Hezbollah weapons depots, and also served as a response to an explosive-laden that struck northern Israel previously on Monday. Video captured the moment of the massive airstrikes:

Sidon is the third largest city in Lebanon, and the region that was attack lies at least 45-60 kilometers from the Israeli border. So far the tit-for-tat strikes which stretch back to early October, following the Hamas terror attack on southern Israel, have been confined to southern Lebanon. Fighting has by and large stayed to within kilometers of the border on either side.

“Israeli jets attacked near Sidon on Monday, Israeli media reported, citing the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper,” regional media also confirms. “The two strikes occurred in the region of Ghaziyeh some 60 km from Israel’s northern border.”

Videos of the strikes show a huge fireball erupt high into the air…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

How Yemen’s ‘asabiyya’ is reshaping geopolitics

January 28, 2024

How Yemen’s ‘asabiyya’ is reshaping geopolitics

The Arabic word Asabiyya, or ‘social solidarity,’ is a soundbite in the west, but taken very seriously by the globe’s new contenders China, Russia, and Iran. It is Yemen, however, that is mainstreaming the idea, by sacrificing everything for the world’s collective morality in a bid to end the genocide in Gaza.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

When there is a general change of conditions,

It is as if the entire creation had changed

and the whole world been altered,

as if it were a new and repeated creation,

a world brought into existence anew. 

— Ibn Khaldun

Yemen’s Ansarallah resistance forces have made it very clear, right from the start, that they set up a blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea only against Israeli-owned or destined shipping vessels. Their single objective was and remains to stop the Gaza genocide perpetrated by the Israeli biblical psychopathy.

As a response to a morally-based call to end a human genocide, the United States, masters of the Global War Of Terror (italics mine), predictably re-designated Yemen’s Houthis as a “terrorist organization,” launched a serial bombardment of underground Ansarallah military installations (assuming US intel know where they are), and cobbled together a mini-coalition of the willing that includes its UK, Canadian, Australian, Dutch, and Bahraini vassals.

Without missing a beat, Yemen’s Parliament declared the US and UK governments “Global Terrorist Networks.”

Now let’s talk strategy.

With a single move, the Yemeni resistance seized the strategic advantage by de facto controlling a key geoeconomic bottleneck: the Bab el-Mandeb. Hence, they can inflict serious trouble on sectors of global supply chains, trade, and finance.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

January 23, 2024

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

The US has the cudgel of the American dollar to prevent its expulsion from Iraq, but will the Biden administration use it?

When Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York City in September for the UN General Assembly, a delicate truce was in balance between the two foreign powers that loom over Baghdad.

Iraqi paramilitaries, backed by Iran, had frozen their attacks on US troops in the country. Iraq’s new leader arrived in New York City amid the lull. He was feted on a circuit of swanky receptions with western businessmen and diplomats on the sidelines of the General Assembly, as he pitched Iraq’s oil-rich but corruption-riddled economy as an investment destination.

Four months later, the Iraqi leader is condemning Iran and the US for launching deadly strikes in his country and his investment pitch to the global elite at Davos Switzerland is overshadowed by his call for the US military and its coalition partners to leave Iraq.

Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October and the war in Gaza, Iranian-backed militias have launched at least 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq.

In early January, the US hit back with its most powerful response yet, launching a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, a senior commander in the Popular Mobilisation Units, an umbrella organisation of Iraqi state-funded and Iran-aligned, Shia militias.

Baghdad hit out at the strike as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty”. But no sooner was Iraq chastising the US for the strike, when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the Iraqi city of Erbil, killing four people, including a prominent Kurdish real estate developer and his one-year-old daughter.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Rickards’ Five 2024 Forecasts

December 17, 2023

Rickards’ Five 2024 Forecasts

Rickards’ Five 2024 Forecasts

I have five forecasts for 2024 to help keep you ahead of the curve in positioning your investment portfolio.

My overall forecast is that 2024 will be more tumultuous and shocking than 2023. That may seem hard to credit.

With two major wars going on, an indicted former president and a demented current president, how can 2024 be more challenging than 2023?

Rest assured; it will be. I explain why below.

An Election of Dire Consequences

It’s a cliche to write that the next presidential election will be the “most important in our lifetimes.” Yet in 2024 that cliche will actually be true.

The divide between the two parties is probably greater than at any time in U.S. political history since the Civil War. The choice could not be more stark and the stakes could not be higher.

That’s why this election is so important.

First off, I don’t think that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president.

Biden’s problem is not just his age, but the fact that he actually is mentally and physically impaired. He’s simply not fit to be president, and everyone knows it even if Democratic operatives and media sycophants don’t want to mention it. But who will replace Biden?

The most likely replacements are Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer and Jennifer Granholm. All four were or are state governors. They’re all about the same ideologically; take your pick. Forget Kamala Harris; she’s simply too much of a liability.

The Republican Side

On the Republican side, there’s not a lot to say. Trump will be the nominee; no one can recall a non-incumbent with such a large lead in the polls.

He’s leading the pack by 55 points or more and is now even running ahead of Joe Biden in recent polls.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel, Gaza, and the Struggle for Oil

December 16, 2023

Israel, Gaza, and the Struggle for Oil

Aerial View of Haifa oil refineries. Photo: Meronim, CC BY-SA 4.0 Deed.

It was the sign that got to me. I was standing with protesters outside the Burlington (VT) City Hall at a rally organized by Jewish Voice for Peace. To my left I spotted a man, grim-faced and silent, holding aloft a piece of cardboard with these words scratched in black:

“Jews against Genocide.”

“So it has finally come to this,” I said to myself.

Why, I wondered, would Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Biden administration risk their standing in the world and ignore calls for a ceasefire? Did they have an unspoken agenda?

As  a chronicler of the endless post-9/11 wars in the Middle East, I concluded that the end game was likely connected to oil and natural gas, discovered off the coast of Gaza, Israel and Lebanon in 2000 and 2010 and estimated to be worth $500 billion. The discovery promised to fuel massive development schemes involving the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

Also at stake was the transformation of the eastern Mediterranean into a heavily militarized energy corridor that could supply Europe with its energy needs as the war in Ukraine dragged on.

Here was the tinderbox waiting to explode that I had predicted in 2022. Now it was exploding before our very eyes. And at what cost in human lives?

Eastern Mediterranean, Oil and Gas Reserves

Map of the Eastern Mediterranean region showing the area included in the USGS Levant Basin Province assessment. Photo credit: USGS.

Reflections on the Israeli War on Gaza

The year 1975 was my last in beautiful, cosmopolitan Beirut, Lebanon, before it descended into 15 years of brutal civil war, killing 100,000 people.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Houthi Rebels Hit Norwegian-Flagged Tanker With Anti-Ship Cruise Missile At Key Maritime Chokepoint

December 12, 2023

Houthi Rebels Hit Norwegian-Flagged Tanker With Anti-Ship Cruise Missile At Key Maritime Chokepoint

An anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck a Norwegian-flagged tanker in the Red Sea near a key maritime chokepoint known as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where nearly 10% of all crude traded at sea passes through.

Reuters quoted Houthi military spokesperson Yehia Sarea, who said the tanker – named “Strinda” – was targeted because it was headed to an Israeli terminal, and the crew ignored all warnings.

However, Strinda’s owner, Norway’s Mowinckel Chemical Tankers, said the vessel was bound for the Suez Canal and then on to Italy with a cargo containing vegetable oil and biofuels.

A US official told Reuters that the attack occurred about 60 nautical miles north of Bab al-Mandab Strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden around 2100 GMT. After the attack, another official said the tanker could move under its own power.

According to the US military’s Central Command, which supervises US forces in the Middle East, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Mason received a distress call from Strinda and was able to respond:

“There were no US ships in the vicinity at the time of the attack, but the (US Navy destroyer) USS MASON responded to the M/T STRINDA’s mayday call and is currently rendering assistance.” 

The Iran-backed militant group has carried out a series of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea (read: here & here). They are specifically targeting any vessel they believe is going to or coming from Israel.

Bloomberg cited sources who said the US and Gulf allies have been discussing potential military action against the militant group for the latest spate of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

As for energy markets, Brent crude futures briefly traded above $76 a barrel after Central Command posted on X about the incident on Monday night. Yet Brent gave up all gains and slid back to the $75 handle early Tuesday. Global crude markets are gripped with oversupply fears.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Bloodbaths change the world – part 1

December 6, 2023

Bloodbaths change the world – part 1

The bloodbath in Israel will change the world. We wait for the facts before we write and take this incident as an opportunity to analyze bloodbaths of the past. Lies that changed the world – not for the better.

Introduction

The attack on Israel shocks anyone with a heart. The images defy description. Last weekend, Israelis were slaughtered, now it’s the Palestinians’ turn. Mindless revenge follows a seemingly mindless attack.

This is not the first time that images of a bloodbath have been burned into the consciousness of the world’s population, only to be exploited to stir up fear and justify wars that have claimed the lives of millions of civilians.

The situation is more than confusing. The parties: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Palestinians, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and (as always) the United States. In addition to a Palestinian people who have been victimized for decades, there are countless candidates who offer themselves as backers.

The opinions now being passed around are based on emotions and not on facts. Nevertheless, within a very short time a big culprit must be found, who is suitable to be hated by the shocked public. The New York Times already found it last Sunday: Iran.

“If you don’t question everything, analysis leads to wrong results.”

Emotions are not suitable for analyzing geopolitics. We wait for facts, analyze, think and only then take up the pen.

In the meantime, we deal with events that were presented to the world population as facts, but were lies that changed our world forever for the worse.

We do this to cool and sharpen the reader’s eye. If you don’t question everything, analysis will lead to the wrong conclusion. However, questioning everything also means asking forbidden questions.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Bloodbaths Change the World – Part 2 – 9/11

December 6, 2023

Bloodbaths Change the World – Part 2 – 9/11

Before writing about Israel, an analysis of facts about 9/11 – a web of lies changed the world, enabled by abuse of emotions.

Introduction

Israel dominates the global media to an almost unseen extent. Only almost, because one event 22 years ago surpassed everything else in terms of media hype: 9/11. What both events have in common is that politicians and the media ruthlessly exploit people’s shock to achieve their goals or to generate clicks and thus rake in money. Most articles have one thing in common: they are based on emotions. We write about geopolitics. Geopolitical analyses must be based on facts. If the basis is emotionally charged, the analysis is worthless, regularly leads to false results and gives culprits and masterminds tools to work with, which they should not have under any circumstances.

In this second part of our series, we discuss this and more based on the most publicized terrorist attack of the 21st century.

In Part 1, we established that President Truman lied through the teeth not only to his own people but to the entire world by dropping the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki not as claimed to save hundreds of thousands of American soldiers’ lives, but to show the world and Stalin who would be the master of the house after World War 2.

“Fundamental constitutional rights, have no more value than a membership in a tennis club”

For this marketing stunt, Truman cold-bloodedly sacrificed 200,000 Japanese, most of them civilians. His own people were emotionally well prepared for this atrocity. Since the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the American government and the media poisoned the soul of the Americans with the most vicious racist propaganda. This hate speech against everything Japanese allowed the American state, among other things, to put hundreds of thousands of American citizens with Japanese roots into concentration camps: American citizens, mind you.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Pentagon Confirms US Warship, Commercial Ships Under Attack In Red Sea

December 3, 2023

Pentagon Confirms US Warship, Commercial Ships Under Attack In Red Sea

Update (1409ET):

A reporter from the Israeli public broadcasting corporation shared on X that a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces reported a UK commercial ship was targeted in the Houthi attack.

*   *   *

Update (1305ET):

CNN’s Pentagon reporter Haley Britzky reports that the US Arleigh Burke-class destroyer Carney shot down two drones belonging to Yemen’s Iran-supported Houthi rebels.

The destroy then received a “distress call from the civilian commercial vessel M/V Unity Explorer, after the Carney saw at least one ballistic missile fired at the Unity Explorer & land in its vicinity.”

According to Bloomberg data, Unity Explorer is a bulk carrier and recently transited the Suez Canal. The ship’s last known position was last Tuesday, in the middle part of the Red Sea.

Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the attack.

*   *   *

In a significant development, AP News has reported that a US Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and two commercial vessels were targeted in the Red Sea. This incident is part of a growing trend of maritime attacks in the waters of the Middle East, which have been linked to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.

“We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,” the Pentagon said.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a US official told AP that the attack was around Sanaa, Yemen, and said Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, repelled at least one drone during the attack.

Despite no confirmation from the Pentagon on who exactly were the attackers, one might suspect Yemen’s Iran-supported Houthi rebels, who have frequently attacked ships in the Red Sea, could be responsible. The terror group has also launched drones and missiles at Israel.

Let’s remember the Red Sea is one of the world’s most heavily traveled commercial shipping lanes.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

War, Peace, And That Other Thing.

November 30, 2023

War, Peace, And That Other Thing.

Understanding political violence.

I was thinking of writing something about Gaza this week, but frankly I don’t have the detailed knowledge of the region, nor for that matter experience of fighting in tunnels, to add to what’s already been said elsewhere. But reading some of this coverage made me realise, again, how little our society really understands and is prepared to acknowledge about the roots and purposes of political violence, and so I thought it might be interesting to discuss that subject, looping back to the current situation in Gaza at the end.

Let’s start with the obvious point that western Liberal society likes clear distinctions and opposites in all areas of life. We are a profoundly Aristotelian society: everything is either A or B, there is nothing in the middle. Because real life itself is messy, this produces endless complex and ultimately pointless arguments about precisely where to draw a dividing line, and whether this or that act or event or pronouncement is ultimately acceptable, or whether it should be rejected and cast into outer darkness. Thus, everything to do with the use of force in politics is presented in stark, opposed terms: war vs. peace, violence vs negotiations, conflict vs cooperation, and of course good vs. bad. And then we wonder why we cannot understand the world, and why the behaviour of many of its actors surprises us so often.

Most civilisations before the modern western era have not seen things this way, and quite a few still don’t. According to taste, we can follow the theories of Ian McGilchrist, arguing that we live in an epoch of dangerous left-brain domination, which sees everything in terms of binary opposites and infinitely detailed differences…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel A ‘Nuclear Wildcard’ On ‘Dangerous Road To Armageddon’: Macgregor

October 24, 2023

Israel A ‘Nuclear Wildcard’ On ‘Dangerous Road To Armageddon’: Macgregor

Tucker Carlson sat down with Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.), who laid out a disturbing scenario in which the United States could quickly be pulled into a direct conflict with Iran, Russia and China over Israel’s anticipated response to the October 7 Hamas attack.

Carlson starts off highlighting Lindsey Graham, who vowed; “…if Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran, launches a massive attack on Israel, I consider that a threat to the… state of Israel, existential in nature. I will introduce a resolution [in] the United States Senate to allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the Oil Business…”

Carlson then asks: “So what would war with Iran mean? Well, it’s hard to know because virtually no one who’s talking about it in public is operating from a deep interest in America’s interest. Is this good for us, or is it not?”

If, as Sen. Graham suggests, we start bombing critical infrastructure in Iran, Macgregor warns “the destruction would be wholesale” as Iran would target “all the bases we have in Iraq and Syria – with around 1000 Americans – would be targeted… and this time accurately.“

According to Macgregor, “The chosen destination” if we continue on this path, “is Armageddon,” and the implications (of which nobody seems to be considering) for the United States, Europe, and the Middle East are grave. For example, “just on the economic side, about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz every month – probably 25% of liquefied natural gas, and you’re talking about shutting down 2 to three million barrels a day of oil from Iran. 

“You know this entire region is involved in the war. This is not an Iranian Monopoly by any stretch of the imagination,” he continued.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Sword of Damocles

October 15, 2023

The Sword of Damocles

An economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war (Free)

On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:

  1. The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.
  2. OPEC responds with an oil embargo.
  3. Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.
  4. The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.
  5. Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.
  6. Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.
  7. Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.
  8. Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.
  9. Petrodollar trade collapses.
  10. Hyperinflation emerges.

In this entry, I go through each step.

History rhymes?

In October 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against a coalition of Arab States led by Egypt and Syria. As a result of this, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo against western countries supporting Israel. In six months, the price of oil rose by nearly 300%, globally, and even more in the U.S., which at that time had become dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil.

In the current time, in the worst-case, Israel launches a major counter-offensive against Palestine leading to a declaration of war, to Israel, from Iran and Syria (others may join too). In this situation, the U.S. would be almost surely forced to respond and take part in the defense of Israel. The Ford carrier strike group (which includes world’s largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford) has been dispatched to eastern Mediterranean and the Biden administration has been reported of considering sending another carrier strike group to eastern Mediterranean. There are also rumors of U.S. military cargo planes making routine trips to Israel.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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